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Global Markets Analysis – 14 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.08.2017周一万花丛中一抹红——马盘毛棕榈油盘中异动

美国农业部上周四晚间公布利空报告后,当前油脂类商品市场仍被“悲观情绪”围绕。美盘黄豆连期价仍延续下跌整理走势,而美盘豆油12月合约也追随性下挫,仅仅是下挫幅度比美豆略微温柔一些,美豆油12月合约的下挫整理走势仍延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,在上周五阴K线下跌之后,今天周一表现为阴阳K线震荡整理,期价在反复中抵抗性运行—–下挫动能与上涨动能均不明显,市场拉锯式多空争夺,市场对后市短线走势看法存在分歧。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,上周五异军突起—–中阳红盘上涨表现,盘面拒绝下跌短多护盘动作更为明显,马棕榈的“独特个性”一面又开始显现。马棕榈短多护盘的持续性与决心有待我们关注。

小结:美国农业部利空消息对美盘油脂商品还存在利空影响,后市短线仍需吸收消化几天。而马盘棕榈油耐不住“寂寞”,率先期价红盘走强,盘中短线多头护盘迹象更为积极。大陆内盘油脂商品夹于二者之间,略显左右为难——全球油脂类商品短线上出现“细微的分化走势”,这也令我们思维操作上难度大增。具体操作上:无仓单交易者场外继续观望(期价不下挫到下方某低点位置不多单埋伏,期价不突破性反身上涨不多单追进,模糊无序震荡走势不建议操作)。而前期未平仓干净剩余的少量空单根据美豆油仍未下挫完毕,可少量空单继续持有,密切关注美盘豆油与马盘棕榈油的具体博弈结果(美豆想下,马棕榈想上),不出明确结果前稳健交易者不建议交易。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil market is digesting bearish news that have come out of USDA report.
• Driven by long interest, Malaysia palm oil gains ground.
• China edible oils remain indecisive as they struggle to track rival oils.
• Global edible oils appear to be diverging, making it difficult to formulate a strategy.

[ACTION]
• Uncommitted traders may stay on the sidelines.
• Traders may retain or reduce short positions in view of an ongoing downward correction of US soybean oil.
• Given the diverging trends of US soybean oil and Malaysia palm oil, defensive traders are advised to stay out of the market in times of high uncertainty.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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