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Global Markets Analysis – 14 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.12.2014 周日 本周油脂商品回顾以及下周展望

国际原油市场继续保持惯性下行态势,周五晚间盘中再创新低57.35美元,正如我们前期报告中预期的那样,继续冲击下方月K线图表的上升趋势线50.00美元位置过程中,中线和短线我们对国际原油继续保持看空观点。上周报告提到外贸商品进口商或者生产商的套期保值业务,我们上次周报提到沙特阿拉伯在现货价格下滑同时,再期货市场做空原油,沙特作为原油出口国,现货上的原油亏损由于在期货市场放空,在一定程度上得到了弥补。这就是典型套期保值业务范例。相反,对于进口企业或公司,由于担心未来某时期价格的上涨所带来的困扰,则需要在相同商品上做多,如若未来某时期价格真的出现上涨而采购成本上升,会在期货上的多单利润中得到弥补。也就是说生产商为保证计划中的利润需在期货市场做空,而进口商则需要做多,只有这样才能保证未来某时间段由于商品价格的不确定性所带来的公司资金周转困境与正常业务经营。当前-未来再这2个时间点,套期保值操作能锁定正常的经营,避免因时间周期上的不同商品价格的波动所带来的不利影响,这点与期货公司与广大投机散户的以营利为目的的操作是有所不同的。从传统理论上来讲,期货市场的存在正是为经营企业所设立的,而投资或投机散户紧紧是参与者起到润滑剂作用。

在美原油市场继续下挫时候,周五晚间美豆油市场出现小幅中阳上涨,美豆油3月合约(当前主力合约),在前期下挫横盘整理基础上,短线出现红盘上涨,是否上行能延续尚待下周初是否出现再次的阳K线,(错列上行)当前价格穿刺了原箱体下沿位置,我们下周密切关注美豆油的短线市场表现。

大陆内盘油脂类商品本周市场表现不强,豆油1505主力合约期价跳跃式波动震荡,棕榈油主力1505合约期价波动更是收窄,5个交易日期价变化不大,短线呈横盘状态,此种情况之下场外观望为明智之举。建议等待美盘豆油下周的短线指引。

马盘毛棕榈油市场12月8日至12月12日当周, 基准2月合约期价波动为先抑后扬,整体仍处于前低点与60天线之间运行,在短暂先抑后扬过程中,我们曾建议前期空单适量减仓以规避不必要的损失,当前上方60天线处的技术压力仍存,密切关注下周美豆油市场的表现, 后市若美豆油上冲箱体下沿,马盘毛棕榈油站上60天线,则短线走势上我们将转为看多对待,若上冲不成功我们仍需以疲软态势下的横盘整理看待。

综述:国际原油市场仍处于下行态势中,继续保持对原油市场看空观点不变。美豆油市场短线走势出现异动,是否能突破箱体下沿,对全球油脂类商品将起到短线运行的方向指引,下周初我们密切关注美豆油的市场表现。个人观点认为短线空单平仓出局后场外观望,未持仓者继续观望,长线操作者耐心等待美原油在滑落到达50.00美元/桶后的止跌企稳。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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