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Global Markets Analysis – 14 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.12.2015 油脂类商品在震荡整理中出现期价反复

美盘豆油3月合约,期价在反复中震荡整理,前期的连续上行走势趋缓,在上升动能衰减后,期价呈抵抗性回落整理,前期我们说过,当前全球油脂商品的短线走势节奏为先反弹(已结束)-后回落整理(进行中)-再回复反弹上行(未发生), 在回落整理尚未结束前,我们依旧保持短空心态对待美盘豆油走势。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,当前的回落整理正进行中,特别是豆油1605合约,当前期价回落幅度要大些,而内盘棕榈油1605合约,由于前期反弹上行的幅度就比豆油小,因此回落时候的幅度就略微小一些。在短暂的回落整理尚未出现技术信号前,仍以短空看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,上周五盘中中阳上涨,在连续3天下挫之后出现该现象, 在上周五增仓上行的盘口语言告诉我们-盘中出现多头主力增仓进场拉升护盘迹象,表明多头主力对后市长线角度存在一种看好意愿。据新加坡12月11日消息,马来西亚棕榈主产区降雨预报,季风季节对棕榈豆供应的影响担忧,也是上周五12月11日盘中出现红盘上涨的主要心理因素。从长期角度来说,后期厄尔尼诺现象的发生仍为大概率事件。今天周一早盘,马盘毛棕榈2月又低开低走,说明马盘棕榈在回落整理过程中受投资人心理影响情绪较重,我们仍暂时以强势抵抗整理观点看待。

小结:全球油脂类商品回落整理短线进行中,部分品种在下挫整理过程中期价出现大幅度反复,短线的心理因素影响严重,在无明显止跌企稳回落整理结束信号出现前,个人继续保持短空观点,个别的期价反复暂时不予理会。观点认为具体操作上:长线多单继续持有,后市技术整理完仍长线看好。中线波动操作者特别是内盘豆油品种上多单空单继续锁单持有,以规避期价在回落过程中的账户缩水现象。内盘短线操作者反手空单持有,继续保持短线回落整理观点不变。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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