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Global Markets Analysis – 14 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.02.2016 周日 2月8日-2月12日当周市场表现回顾以及下周初短线走势展望

美盘豆油5月合约,本周2月8日-2月12日5个交易日中,整体呈现先抑后扬走势,周初稍弱,期价短暂下挫,后在多头主力增仓进场拉抬左右下,周末最后三天连续红盘上涨,短线期价超越2月5日高点,短线走强态势盘中表现明显,对美盘豆油短线保持短多观点,后市仍有上行动能。

美盘原油连在中国大陆内盘因公共假期停盘休息时候,原油期价出现下挫探底疲软走势,期价下触到26.06美元十字星收盘,仅仅在2月12日周五晚间才红盘中阳上涨,纽约原油抵抗性下挫整理态势延续中。

大陆内盘从2月5日开始因传统节日“春节”而停盘,在年前收盘短线走势上,内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1605主力合约短线上扬,前期的震荡反弹上行的短线行情得到延续,内盘连续一周多未交易,明天2月15日周一将开盘,在美盘豆油假期间的短线走高将提振内盘油脂商品的明天走势,建议短多对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,本周8日至9日因公共假期停盘2天,本周仅3个交易日, 周三周四2天的表现平平,几乎延续前期短线横盘震荡,需要指出的是2月12日周五盘中-跳空高开高走,短线出现反弹上行加速迹象,棕榈基准4月短线多头增仓进场迹象明显,上行动能延续中。

小结:在大陆内盘与马盘因公共假期停盘期间,美元指数短线下挫走低,以贵金属黄金为代表的期货大宗商品走强,特别是美黄金莲长阳暴涨,但由于上行速度太快后市短线将高位震荡难免(也不排除黄金短线冲高回落走势)。对于我们关心的油脂类商品来说,由于美盘豆油周末的走强,恐将提振内盘与马盘油脂商品下周走势,我们对内盘与马盘油脂商品的下周表现以短多观点对待。个人观点认为操作上: 中长线原老多单持有者半仓位多单持有。短线交易者无仓者-下周一短多跟随盘面进场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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