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Global Markets Analysis – 14 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.01.2016 周四 美国农业部报告数据利好;存在支持油脂商品短线走强可能

华盛顿周二消息,美国农业部发布的数据显示:2015-2016年度美国大豆单产被调低,平均单产从每英亩48.3蒲式耳调低到48蒲式耳。大豆总产量比上月也调低了5100万蒲式耳,为39.30亿蒲式耳。2015-2016年度美国大豆期末库存调低到4.40亿蒲式耳,比2015年12月份的库存调低2500万蒲式耳。从公布的数据分析,单产、总产量、期末库存量均被下调,整体本次农业部报告利多大豆市场。美盘黄豆连周二与周三晚间连续红盘上涨,期价略有走高,带动美盘豆油3月合约昨日晚间红盘上涨,期价短线下挫走势略有止跌迹象,关注今日晚间美豆油期价能否站上60天均线,我们继续以60天均线为短线多空分界岭。若后市短线能再继续走高,我们将开始考虑多单在内盘与马盘跟进。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,期价仍短线围绕日K线图表上60天均线附近震荡徘徊,操作上暂时保持观望,继续等待美盘的短线方向指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日马棕榈中阳红盘上涨报收,盘中的多头抵抗迹象明显,今天周四盘中期价在60天均线位置徘徊,马棕榈的短线强势仍较为明显,仅仅等待美盘与大陆内盘油脂商品在走势上给予支持。

小结:全球油脂类商品的短线回落整理行情延续中,下方回落的具体支撑在那?这个问题是我们当前最为关心的,虽然油脂商品尚未有明显的短线走强信号,但我们也不强烈看空多少,耐心等待市场给出明确的短线多单进场机会。个人观点认为具体操作上:中长线老多单继续持有。短线交易者场外观望,等待市场止跌企稳后的多单再次进场时机。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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