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Global Markets Analysis – 14 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.14 周一 上周回顾 (07.07.2014 – 11.07.2014)与后市展望

全球油脂商品市场在7月7日 – 7月11日当周,继续保持回落态势,并且盘中几度出现下跌加速迹象。整体来说油脂商品短线仍被空头主力掌握着市场的下行节奏。

其中,美盘豆油12月,7月9日周三长阴跌破原下降通道的下轨支撑位,周四小阳收盘于支撑线37.60位置,周五在该位置下方再次出现空头发力,美豆油周五以带下影线的中阴收盘,该下影线的低点是否为本轮下跌的波段性低点,成为后市短线所关注的焦点。

大陆内盘豆油1501合约,上周5个交易日,四阴一阳的表现,下滑态势最为明显,具体周一早盘受美盘周五晚间下跌影响,再次出现跳空缺口,惯性下跌延续中。大陆棕榈油1501合约,上周市场走势与豆油1501合约略有不同,未出现豆油那种直线性垂直下跌,上周5个交易日中,整体呈现横盘震荡走势,并且在周四盘中曾出现大的宽幅震荡行情。 今天早盘低开低走出现补跌。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准9月,7月7日 – 7月11日当周,前四个交易日勉强维持在6月12日低点2361之上,但在7月11日周五时分长阴下跌,终盘报收于2346。2361前低的技术位终于被下破,我们曾说过,若前低2361低点被下破后,则技术上就会出现新低可能。在美盘与大陆内盘外围油脂市场疲软行情带动下,7月14日周一早盘,终于短线空头占主动,形成技术跳空低开缺口,下破前低成立。马盘毛棕榈油也出现补跌走势。

综述:上周全球油脂商品市场继续保持下行态势,从6月25日开始的本轮波段性质行情仍继续中,各油脂商品上的技术支撑位均被下破,后市属于“不破不立”的技术洗盘?还是下破后继续惯性下跌?成为我们后市关注的焦点。从本轮下跌行情波段性质技术分析来说,下跌的时间已经不短,下跌的空间也已经非常大,下跌的动能随着下跌空间的扩大,正逐步被释放,后市临近本轮下跌的尾声阶段,在加速下跌之后,酝酿新的拐点正逐步被纳入日程。个人看法是波段性技术拐点未明显出现前,接盘多单仍不建议急于进场。前期逢高放空操作模式下的空单在本周初逢低继续平仓出局,然后场外观望。待本周后半周下跌动能衰竭之时,我们再做出新的操作计划。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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