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Global Markets Analysis – 14 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.06.2017 周三 昨日马盘棕榈油意外中阴下跌

美盘豆油7月合约,短线期价仍围绕在60天均线附近徘徊震荡,多空主力仍对这一关键阵地进行争夺,昨日晚间的小阳K线,表明多头主力并未放弃(再前一天 空头主力曾主动阻击过),继续关注多头主力在60天均线位置的后市表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日周二时分,马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)发布了5月份供需报告,报告显示5月份棕榈油产量165万吨,环比增加6.88%,棕榈油出口为151万吨,环比增17.35%。5月份棕榈油期末库存为156万吨,环比减2.64%。低于市场预期的158万吨。从整体报告分析—–该报告为中性偏多成分,基本上符合此前市场投资人士的预期(利好)。但昨日周二盘面上,马棕榈基准8月却意外创新低,我个人认为昨日马盘棕榈油的“独特”表现——有操作情绪夸大成分,并且不排除有“空头陷阱”嫌疑。还好当前期价仍处于4月19日前低上方,今天周三早盘期价跳空高开,部分修正了昨日的偏激情绪。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,豆油1709合约当前表现为“2阳夹一阴”,短线期价仍有上行动力。内盘棕榈油1709合约昨日受马盘棕榈油走弱影响,期价从周一阳K线右上角出现下滑(整理幅度略大了一些),终盘以中阴K线收盘。今天周三盘面低开高走红盘表现。

小结:美盘豆油纠结于60天均线位置徘徊震荡,短线反弹走势上略显犹豫。这造成内盘马盘油脂商品短线走势上出现情绪波动,特别是马盘棕榈油昨日表现更为激进而偏激,同时造成内盘油脂商品也被拖累,对于美盘豆油在关键技术位置的后续表现,我们表示密切关注,对于内盘马盘油脂商品剧烈波动可略微淡化一些,继续保持短多思路不变。操作上:前期多单继续持有,等待美盘豆油上破60天均线阻挡之后的市场表现。

[SUMMARY]
• As US soybean oil continues to hover near the 60-day moving average, a short-term rebound appears uncertain.
• As a result, China and Malaysia oils are affected by market sentiment: Malaysia palm oil slipped and dragged China edible oils along with it yesterday.
• With a short-term long position outlook in mind, we shall focus more on the technical signals of US soybean oil and less on the volatile movement of China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position, in anticipation of US soybean oil breaking above the 60-day moving average.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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