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Global Markets Analysis – 14 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.03.2017 周二 油脂类商品短线走势疲软 操作上暂以跨品种套利与 多空单对锁操作模式对待

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周一晚间以中阴K线下跌报收,早先的2根长阳K线多头阵地完全丢失—–当前期价已经下破了2月末的低点位置(2.27日低点),该支撑位置被下破后,则短线形势又变得紧张起来,我们暂时以短空观点看待,同时密切关注美豆油下挫的深度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,内盘豆油期价下跌幅度大于棕榈油,其中内盘豆油1705期价,已经于3天前就率先跌破2月末时候的低点位置。而内盘棕榈油1705合约期价仍在2月末低点位置顽强抵抗徘徊—–内盘棕榈强豆油弱迹象较为明显,部分短线交易者可跨品种套利(前期多单未完全平仓出局的散户朋友可棕榈油多单,豆油空单,双向持有)。

马盘棕榈油基准5月,昨日周一盘中低开低走,虽然盘中曾一度长上影线,但在空头主力进场主动打压下(增仓下行 为空头进场),最终期价走低,我们部分多单减仓出局后,新进反手空单暂时持有—–形成多单空单对锁局面(建议空单数量略多一些,多单略少一点)。

小结:全球油脂类商品空头氛围突然来袭,美盘马盘最新基本面报告情况利空情绪严重,内盘当前为油脂类商品的消费淡季—-所以整体上当前短线走势较为疲软(瞬间扭转了前几天来的反弹上行走势),我们暂时以短空观点对待,同时关注下方回落的空间大小。具体操作上:跨品种套利(内盘强者上多单,弱品种上持空单)马盘多空单对锁的单子—–其中空单可遇盘中急跌时候,空单逢低平仓了结,然后待阳K线时候空单再逢高进场(滚动操作一下)。至于我们手中前期的部分剩余多单—–我们内心还没完全放弃,因为市场期价的运行轨迹是以波峰波谷形态来波浪式演绎的—-在没有一个像样的反弹上行就突然下挫,这种走势应该不会太长久,因此上我们内心深处还未对手中的老多单完全死心。当前的跨品种套利与对锁单操作完全是一种“保守型操作模式”,仅仅是为紧急应对当前的不利短线局面的一个权宜之计,对于这一点我希望我们散户朋友能心中理解。

[SUMMARY]
• Short interest on global edible oil intensifies, as latest reports of US and Malaysia edible oil boost bearish sentiment, while China markets enter a season of smaller consumption.
• As a result, the general short-term performance is showing fatigue.
• We hold a short-term short position outlook at the moment, while observing the depth of the decline.

[ACTION]
• Cross-commodity traders may go long on strengthening product and short on weakening product. The short side of the trade may be closed if the market continues to fall, then enter long position when technical indicators signal an uptrend.
• Traders who are holding position may persevere and await a rebound.
• Spread trades at the moment is probably the safest course of action.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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