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Global Markets Analysis – 14 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.11.2016 周一 中国证监会严查期货市场违规资金;内盘期货市场上周五夜盘交易出现“惊魂夜”违规资金出逃迹象明显

据可靠消息:由于中国大陆期货市场近期部分商品期价上涨迅猛,中国证监会连续发出15条“降温”通知,向期货交易所和中国中国期货市场监控中心下发了“风险函”,要求加大对交易、结算、交割等重点环节的监管力度,还明确了单日部分品种的交易限额,查处违法与违规资金的力度增大,国内期货市场一片恐慌,在上周五晚间夜盘出现“午夜惊魂”场面-多个品种从涨停暴跌至跌停价格,PTA、橡胶、棕榈油、豆油、菜油、菜粕、豆粕、棉花;有色金属如铜、锌、镍、锡;黑色金属 螺纹钢、焦炭、煤炭;贵金属如黄金与白银。几乎所有品种都受到影响,市场完全陷入一片“政策恐慌潮”之中。市场风险突现,我们要加倍小心这一突发事件对期货市场的影响力度。

从美国期货市场来说-美盘豆油12月合约,这个11月11日双11日子,也未曾避免,受大陆内盘期货市场的剧烈波动影响,期价也出现长上影的阴K线,期价由原先的长阳变成终盘的中阴长上影收盘。美盘豆油短线走势也出现下跌危险信号。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,受中国证监会严厉制裁不利心理影响,内盘油脂商品瞬间短线反弹上行走势“崩塌”,上周五晚间的一根长阴K线, 令短线的反弹走势一夜间骤变,市场陷入一片恐慌气氛当中,后市短线出现变盘信号,市场风险骤然加剧-我们密切关注市场政策面的变化对后期市场的影响程度。

马来西亚方面-受国内上周五 政策面消息影响,恐对马盘毛棕榈油基准1月短线走势也会带来不利影响,今天周一早盘期价跳空低开,盘中多单减仓兑现筹码与规避风险欲望较强,马棕榈油的短线走势也出现了危险信号,我们此刻要保持谨慎态度-敏感型可部分多单减持,不建议新进多单跟进,后市关注一下中国方面期货市场的后期动态。

小结:中国方面证监会的严厉政策,对中国大陆期货市场带来巨大震动-市场人士普遍心态不稳,在剧烈的期价波动中,期货市场的风险骤然加剧,后市如何演变 目前尚不能完全预测到,我们紧急建议避免该“政策性风险”对商品走势的不利影响。 观点认为具体操作上:上周五晚间敏感型激进交易者减仓多单后,场外观望一下, 未在高点减持多单交易者,可在本周一逢盘中高点减仓一部分,不管后市市场如何变化-我们先尽量规避一下市场系统性所带来的风险。同时建议马盘毛棕榈油前期多单也适量减仓,来防范一下由于中国方面给市场带来的情绪上影响。(多事之秋 如美国大选、中国政策面突发事件 、双11)稳健型交易暂时观望一半天,看看后市市场变化。

[SUMMARY]
• Stricter regulations rocked China’s futures markets.
• Anxiety is high amongst market participants, reflecting high volatility and increased risk. It is difficult to foresee where the market will head in the near future.
• It is advisable to avoid regulatory risks.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders who closed-out long positions last Friday may remain on the sidelines.
• Traders who still hold long positions may close-out some of those positions when prices are high.
• Regardless of where the market goes, we shall avoid all systemic risks.
• Traders who hold long positions in Malaysian palm olein may close-out some of those positions, as a means of avoiding spillover effect from China’s markets.
• Passive traders may at the moment observe the market for a half day and see where it will be headed.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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