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Global Markets Analysis – 14 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美国大豆收割工作将在近期进入收尾阶段, 新豆大量上市的心理压力波及市场,昨日周一晚间美盘黄豆连期价中阴下跌。 美盘豆油12月合约昨日晚间同样阴K线下跌,期价再度下破原趋势线(原上升通道的下边轨),还记得在11月3日时候期价就曾出现过“下破”动作, 但随后的三天阳K线上涨,令这个下破动作成为假动作。 但周一周二周三 三天的“强势扭转”也未得到延续,在美国农业部利空报告出炉后,上周四盘面期价冲高回落,这又瞬间令“强势扭转”动作也成为了假动作———短短几天内,美盘豆油商品给市场开了2次玩笑,令投资人士大跌眼镜。。。。市场不可能一直来回忽悠散户朋友,昨日晚间的长阴K线暴跌为可靠信号(恰恰正是因为11月3日是假信号 所以这次是真信号概率大增),我们在昨天报告中就及时调整了操作策略———-短空下探观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油 1801主力合约,通过对美盘豆油基本面 技术面的仔细研究,在昨日早盘报告中,我们就建议散户朋友短线多单全部止损出局, 反手空单进场, 从今天周二盘面观察,期价下挫继续明显,短线空单继续持有。

马来西亚方面,马来西亚棕榈油局上周末公布的最新数据—–2017年10月份棕榈油产量较9月份提高12.9%百分点,10月份产量达到200.9万吨,为三个月来首次环比增长,并且为2年来首次突破200万吨单月产量大关(利空)。 马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日周一盘面为低开低走表现, 在昨日未开盘前—–我们在第一时间,同样调整改变了操作策略,激进型交易者早盘多单止损出局,与稳健型交易者一同盘中反手空单进场,后市市场存在一定的下探机会观点。。。今天周二马盘棕榈油 跳空低开,期价追随美盘 内盘油脂商品走低,虽然今天周二上午小阳K线表现,但这一个跳空缺口的出现,已经暴露了后市短线下挫走势方向,我们继续短空思维对待。

小结:美盘豆油昨日晚间长阴下破原上升趋势线成立,后市短线存在一定的下破后的下探整理技术要求,下探空间的大小有待我们后市继续盘中观察。 对于内盘 马盘油脂商品市场—–我们昨日在第一时间已经合理的调整了短线操作模式策略“短空下探整理”观点对待。 具体操作上:昨日激进型 稳健型交易者反手或者新进空单乐观持有,后市关注焦点放在—-下方的回落空间大小 上来。

• US soybean oil plunged to break through the uptrend line yesterday.
• Traders may pay close attention to the technical break-out signals and the downward momentum on US soybean oil.
Downtrend of China and Malaysia edible oils continues, as a downward correction is still in the progress.

• Conservative and aggressive traders may retain short positions and pay close attention to the downward momentum of the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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