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Global Markets Analysis – 14 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.10.2014 周二 美盘大豆受降雨影响到收割进度

近期美国中西部大豆主产区持续降雨,潮湿天气令美大豆的收获进度迟缓,往年5年来的同期平均进度为58%,当前截止到10月12日进度仅为30%。受大豆收获进度障碍与美元指数短线下挫影响,昨日周一晚间,美大和美豆油双双短线上涨,其中美豆油中阳上涨,阳包阴K线成立,上涨持续性尚待观察。

受美盘上涨影响,大陆内盘油脂商品周二早盘跳空高开,期价有所上行,但前期短线的横盘区间仍未被有效突破,操作上继续观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,受外围油脂商品走高影响,周二早盘高开,但期价仍变化不大,整体维持在60天线附近,日图表上均线系统正发生着微妙变化。

小结:全球油脂商品市场仍维持低位震荡,利空消息被吸收消化,盘面出现利多基本面影响力度加大的情况出现(利空影响因早已达成共识而减弱;利多影响反而在逐步增强),周一晚间美盘油脂出现上涨,其上行持续性尚待盘面观察。个人看法是:前期反弹多单持有者,多单可继续谨慎持有。无单者可场外观望。前几日就建议在黄金为代表的金属能源类商品上多单尝试反弹操作者多单持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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