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Global Markets Analysis – 14 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.10.2016 周五 美盘豆油“金针探底”是否成立? 等待下周市场验证

昨日周四晚间,在美国农业部公布具体数据之后,美盘豆油12月合约期价出现巨幅波动,盘中曾一度长阴下跌,后在低位买盘抄底作用下终盘以带长下影线的小阴K线收盘,从昨日美盘盘面观察,收获季节庞大新豆供应压力带给市场投资人的负面心理压力还是不容忽视的。其实我们在本周一:内盘首个假期过后的交易日(10月10日)就曾提过,待美盘10月13日(北京时间周四凌晨)报告出炉后-在出现一波杀跌动作之后,再考虑逢低多单进场(当时我们就预计美国农业部报告偏向利空)但由于内盘与马盘率先周二就率先出现期价中阳上涨,我们只好少量多单进场试盘。也就是说美盘豆油12月合约昨日周四晚间的这个杀跌动作,我们早在周一时候就在心里预测过,还好美盘豆油未出现大的跌幅,继续关注随后是否利空出尽为利多的心理层面提振(吸收消化基本面过程)。

中国大陆方面,据最新国家粮油信息中心14日消息:由于当前国内压榨利润良好刺激油厂买进积极采购大豆,截止昨日,国内10月份大豆已经提前预定了95%, 11月订购70%,12月份也已经订购了20%,2017年1月也订购10%。从中国海关数据显示:2015-2016年度中国累计进口大豆为8322万吨,较2014-2015年度的7836万吨增加6.2%。预计2016-2017年度中国大豆进口量将达到8500万吨。从数字分析-中国大豆刚性需求呈现连年递增状态。从今天周五盘面观察内盘豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,期价低开高走也有下影线的支持,说明下方存在主力逢低买盘介入,我们继续短多思维谨慎对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,本周二 周三中阳红盘上涨之后,周四与周五出现小阴K线横盘,从今天周五上午盘面观察,马盘棕榈成交依旧较为清淡,市场的观望情绪较浓,我们本周初多单继续谨慎持有。

小结:美盘短线丰产后的供应压力与大豆刚性长期需求增长之间的博弈仍在进行中, 全球投资人的意见分歧较大。我们不受外界各类因素干扰-继续保持逢低多单进场埋伏思维模式不变。观点操作上:本周新进多单继续持有,等待美盘报告出炉后的探底回升动作发生。

[SUMMARY]
• High short-term supply and high long-term demand of soybean leave global investors divided.
• We maintain our outlook of entering long positions in small amounts.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions that were taken this week, as we await the release US report.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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