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Global Markets Analysis – 14 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.14 周日 油脂商品本周回顾(08.09.2014 – 12.09.2014)及下周展望

本周(9月8日 – 9月12日)当周,可谓是风云变换的一周。早在9月7日的周报中我们就提及到本周9月10日和9月12日将有2重大报告公布。其中更为重要的是9月11日凌晨 – 9月12日美国农业部的报告,(报告内容已说明 不再复述)。9月12日周五晚间美盘豆油呈探底回升走势,长阳上涨收盘,形成了一阳包多阴的吞没K线形态,技术层面上的反弹雏形拉开序幕,利空出尽后的多头人气有所凝聚,下周一若在长阳之后能继续发力上攻,则后市短线反弹成立。(一阳指反弹(或反转))

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月本周走势很微妙,在上周连续几日反弹后,在9月10日报告出炉前,期价曾出现过上行无力短暂停顿现象,期价连续考验反弹之后的下方10日均线的支撑,在多头顽强的抵抗下,空头未能令期价下行(短线上空头宣告失败)。本周5个交易内呈现出先抑后扬的走势(三天挫二天扬),最终反弹延续中,这也是从低位开始反弹的第二周,后市上仍有上行动力。

大陆内盘油脂商品本周更是惊心动魄,豆油1501合约前4个交易日跳空低开连续4阴,盘中一度跌破原横盘平台箱体的下沿,下行态势咄咄逼人,但周五的中阳收起,令短线的下破宣告失败,密切关注下周一该品种盘面走势,若扭转秃废走势则反弹可期。内盘棕榈油1501合约,周初时候也曾出现下行加速迹象,后稍微止跌,整体观察本周行情,期价仍运行于原成交密集区的横盘整理平台内,等待市场做出箱体上下沿的突破选择,任何方向的突破均是指引操作的风向标。

综述:本周油脂商品跌宕起伏,多空争夺激烈,在无硝烟的“战争”背后看似平静,实则惊心动魄,一周行情走下来,周初空头主力占绝对优势,但截至到周五一天,多头主力终于力挽狂澜占得上风,令盘面的反弹行情暴漏出玄机。考虑到美盘周五的一阳指以及马盘连续2周的反弹上行走势,大陆内盘油脂商品下周上行态势出现曙光。下周短线油脂商品反弹行情值得期待,短线上的反弹观点不变。个人看法是上周末在箱体下沿位置买进多单的激进操作者可继续持有,同时密切关注美盘豆油走势。马盘本周操作上为规避9月10日报告风险曾出现过中途多单换手情况,在关键技术位未能跌破后曾建议多单接回,下周仍以短线反弹观点看待,多单可继续持有,密切关注基准11月上方均线的压制作用,当前反弹高度还不能技术确定。(先看第一目标40天线2130左右)

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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