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Global Markets Analysis – 14 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.09.2016 周三 美盘豆油连续2天中阴下跌;短线下挫迹象变得明显

昨日周二晚间,美盘豆油12月合约又以中阴下跌收盘-瞬间短线行情变得清晰起来。我们打开美豆油12月合约日K线图表,从8月23日(高点为34.83)开始的回落整理短线行情向下运行7个交易日,于9月1日见低点(32.31),跌幅高度为(34.83-32.31=2.25),然后第8个交易日开始反身上行,我们原先以为至此就要直接走高,但美豆油连续的横盘震荡整理令我们心存疑惑(真正的反弹应该是快速拔高才对),在小幅反弹5个交易后,本周一9月12日期价中阴下跌,而昨日晚间又连续的下跌,终于让我们看清楚-本波的下挫回落整理还没有真正结束,日K线图表上出现了清晰与更小周期上的“三浪结构”(8月23日至9月1日为第1小浪下跌;9月1日至9月9日为第2小浪小幅反弹;第3小浪为9月12至未来某天?)这样分析的结果只有一个-那就是美盘豆油还要下挫一段时间才能把本波回落整理真正完结。在这里我们也计算了一下后市短线第三小浪的下跌深度-我们以等幅下跌计算,9月9日的高点为33.52减去第一小浪的下跌幅度2.52等于31.00,也就是说本波回落整理要到这个位置以下一点才能真正结束,美豆油短线的下挫又进行中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,本周一中阴下跌,昨日周二小阳上涨,我们还期待后市期价能收复周一的失地,但昨日美盘豆油的走势令我们的期待成为泡影,今天内盘油脂商品又追随美盘豆油下跌,短线的回落整理开始变得清晰起来-考虑到今天是内盘中秋节长假期最后一个交易日,明天开始练习4天公共假期,9月19日周一才开盘交易-短线多单可率先平仓出局规避风险,中长线多单可适量反手空单锁仓交易。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,前期市场表现一直很耀眼,是给我们多头反弹上行走势信心最大的一个品种(也在一定程度上迷惑了我们),通过研究美盘豆油未来的后市走势,我们有理由认为马盘棕榈一枝独秀现象不可能成功,建议马盘棕榈油今日早盘多单减仓,部分激进者可反手短空操作。

小结:通过更仔细分析,我们认为美盘豆油第二大浪的回落整理将要以更小周期的小3浪结构继续下挫运行,我们早先的把第2小浪当做第三大浪的开始-现在看来是一种错误,美豆油后市短线还有一次下挫,我们短多观点从今日起转为短空观点,只有这波回落整理结束之后才将迎来中线角度上的上升第三浪(第一大浪从8月初那波反弹上行截止到8月23日,我们这里不再过多复述)。个人观点认为具体操作上:考虑到本周公共假期较多,短线交易者多单率先平仓了结,部分中线交易也可适量减仓多单来规避假期风险,部分更为激进的交易者可反手空单进场,我们已经计算过美盘豆油后市的下挫空间,待到美豆油31.00以下位置时候,我们再逢低平空了结,然后多单在低位埋伏-这是我们最近未来几日的操作计划,在这里提前给予说明。

[ENGLISH SUMMARY]
• As US soybean oil price might drop further, may consider to switch from short-term long to short-term short from today onwards.
• Due to public holidays this week, short-term traders may consider liquidating long positions.
• Medium-term traders may consider close-out some long positions to mitigate public holiday risks.
• More aggressive traders may consider switching from long positions to short.
• If US soybean oil trades below 31.00, traders may consider closing-out short positions to take profit, and opening long positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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