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Global Markets Analysis – 15 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周二马盘短线出现久违的反身动作

期待已久的马盘毛棕榈油反身动作终于有了点动静,期价脱离横盘4天来的低点,终于有个阳K线出现,虽然上面仍受到60天线的压制,但迟迟未见的反身动作终于有了些许迹象,前期接盘多单继续谨慎持有,操作上保持前期观点。

大陆内盘油脂商品短线发生上冲后的回落,其中棕榈油期价围绕3月25日的低点附近徘徊,多头主力在该位置抵抗较为明显, 内盘 马盘在短线走势上出现分化,由于内盘提前多日就出现了反身动作,前期上行高度要远大于马盘,这次再回落确认到60天线下方, 走势基本高度现在与马盘保持到相同状态。

前期我们提到过,美盘黄金与美盘豆油在短线技术图表走势上有惊人的相似之处,当前没黄金仍延续上行态势,而美豆油走势略显步履阑珊,主要受南美大豆收割进行中,后市存在集中上市的利空影响,特别是美大豆 ,由于前期上行速度较快,发生了上冲1500整数关口后的回落。 从中长期角度来说,我们对美豆油仍保持看涨观点,仅仅是短周期上,大陆, 内盘和马盘三者走势细节出现分化。 针对此种情况,我们要在操作上分别对待细节上的操作变化。

小结: 马盘出现迟迟未发生的喜人的反身动作,前期接盘多单继续持有,耐心观察是否能冲破上方60天线的技术阻挡。 内盘油脂是反身动作早早出现,当上行一段时间后,发现马盘毛棕榈油未跟随支持,随即便发生了主动性回落,当前基本高度和基差再次走到相同水平,前期多单已平仓者可场外观望。 未完全平仓干净的可谨慎中持有。同时关注焦点下方为3月25低点,(收盘价不能下破6072)上方为60天线。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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