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Global Markets Analysis – 15 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.04.2015 周三 油脂商品周三盘面多头人气略有凝聚

美盘豆油7月合约,周一晚间长上影线阴K收盘,周二晚间小阳K线收盘,今天周三上午亚洲电子盘继续小阳上攻60天线的技术阻挡位,从短线盘面观察,下方的回落空间被封杀后,盘面上攻欲望依然存在。

纽约原油当前运行在53.50一线,在日K线图表上,均线系统粘合上穿,当前期价位于均线之上,此时均线存在一定的支撑力度。

中国国家统计局今日公布最新消息,中国2015年第一季度国内生产总值140667亿元,按可比价格计算,同比GDP增长7%。分产业看,第一产业增加值7770亿元,同比增长3.2%;第二产业增加值60292亿元,增长6.4%;第三产业增加值72605亿元,增长7.9%。3月中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.1%,比上月小幅回升0.2个百分点,重回临界点上方。一季度外贸进出口同比下降6%,进出口增速双双下滑,3月CPI同比仅上涨1.4%,物价继续处于低位;3月份工业生产者出厂价(PPI)同比下降4.6%,连续第37个月负增长。从第一季度宏观数据分析,我们认为本报告整体呈中性。周三早盘,期货市场油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约出现短线走强,特别是内盘豆油1509合约,期价已经位于日图表上60天处,密切关注后市短线的上行延续性与上行力度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日下探低位后中阳收盘,今天周三早盘追随美盘与大陆内盘外围油脂商品的短线走强,早盘跳空高开,短线的反弹上行出现苗头,后市密切关注盘中的多头的接盘人气。

小结:油脂类商品低位多日震荡后,空头主力始终未能击破前低下沿位置,周三盘面上短线多头人气则有所凝聚。中长线上继续保持下降趋势与上升趋势中间拐点的震荡筑底观点。短线上,前低下沿始终未能技术下坡,建议保持低位短多观点。个人观点认为中长线接盘多单继续持有,耐心等待筑大底完结信号出现。短线多单则依旧以下破前低下沿X点为止损位,多单谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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