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Global Markets Analysis – 15 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.15 周五 美元走强 全球大宗商品整体下跌

昨日晚间,国际原油大幅下跌,美盘豆油继续保持下挫。当前油脂类商品技术面延续中线下降趋势下的弱势格局中,基本面笼罩在利空消息满天飞的恐慌情绪里,油脂商品期价积重难返,市场被空头主力牢牢掌握,在如此强大的压力下多头主力毫无反击之力,些许的抵抗也如螳臂当车般无功而返。

在美盘豆油持续的下挫行情带动下,大陆内盘和马盘油脂商品被动跟随,并且在昨日盘中出现下跌加速迹象,整体油脂商品仍处于弱势下跌行情中,本轮的下探寻底的过程越发变得漫长,在短线操作上逢高短空是唯一可行操作。

纵观其他大宗商品的行情走势,在美元指数连续走高情况下,全球以美元计价的大宗商品均呈现出下跌走势,具体包括贵金属白银、有色金属铜、锌、化工类和橡胶。国内期货市场品种还包括螺纹钢、焦炭、玻璃、白糖等等。大陆内盘此阶段唯一表现较强走势的仅仅只有2个品种 PTA 与 玉米(传言河南省中西部地区干旱严重,前几日实地考察了一下,往年玉米这个时间应该有1.6-1.7米高 ,而今年郑州、洛阳、平顶山和驻马店一带玉米仅仅30厘米-80厘米高,干旱严重人畜饮水都成问题,河南玉米今年产量减产已成定局)。

小结:美元逐步走强,全球大宗商品均呈现不同程度下跌走势。其中我们较为关心的油脂类商品继续延续下行态势,整体盘面依旧疲软,下探寻底过程进行中,短线上我们仍以空头趋势下看空观点对待。个人看法是在具体操作上短线继续以逢高放空,日内操作为主。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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