Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 15 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.08.2016 周一 美盘豆油上破下降压力线的技术阻挡后期价惯性上冲

美盘豆油12月合约,8月10日上周三期价向上突破技术阻挡位后,随后的周四 周五盘中期价继续红盘表现,期价依托5日均线上涨。今天周一亚洲电子盘又延续惯性上冲,短线角度的反弹上行走势良好,基本上验证了此前我们所预期的向上突破走势-后市短线角度来说,美盘豆油12月合约的走势发展轨迹为-延续反弹上行动能继续惯性上冲(并且不排除出现上涨加速迹象),然后会出现上破技术压力位之后的短暂回落整理,整理完之后再形成后续的继续反弹(此刻便演变成中线角度的上涨),这是我们对美豆油后续走势短线节奏的提前描述(附图)。此刻单从短线角度来说,我们继续保持惯性反弹思路对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在上周四时候,多头主力盘中出现犹豫心态,期价曾一度中阴下跌走低,上周五以小阳表现,到本周初后随着美盘豆油短线走势上的逐步清晰明确,今天周一内盘油脂商品多头主力的信心才得以提振-增仓上行拉升,豆油1701的上周末失地被一举收复,而棕榈油1701的短线走势仍比内盘豆油略强,上涨幅度也高于内盘豆油,上周末的失地被收复,我们继续短多思维对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月(我们明天起基准月改为11月),受周边外围市场美豆油与美原油上涨,以及大陆内盘油脂商品失地收复的心理提振影响,今天周一盘面上,马盘棕榈油早盘跳空高开高走,期价出现上涨加速迹象,短线角度的反弹上行走势得以延续,我们短多思路不变。

小结:随着美盘豆油的逐步反弹走强,以及国际原油期价的走高,全球油脂类商品短线角度的反弹上行走势延续中,我们继续以反弹上行观点对待。对于盘面上的加速迹象-后市短线关注重点转移到期价反弹第一波的高点在何位置?到那时短线交易者手中的多单可逢最高点减持,而对于中线角度的交易者可继续多单持有。(我们当前的操作思维模式从操作周期上分为2大块-短线激进交易与中线交易),由于操作周期上的不同,希望散户朋友能理解我们的语言描述,不太明白的朋友也不用着急,可仔细看看关于美盘豆油今天的那张图片(后期的蓝色箭头的预测部分),就能明白我所说的含义,因为是期价运行的未来预测图,不排除在实际运行中期价有误差,我们当以盘面实际价格运行轨迹为主。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock