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Global Markets Analysis – 15 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.08.2017周二胳膊未拧过大腿——马盘棕榈油不抵美盘豆油拖累冲高回落

美盘黄豆连下挫整理态势延续中,美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间以阴K线十字星期价下跌收盘,盘中期价曾一度触及下方60天均线附近,昨日的上下影线,表明多空主力对后市短线走势看法仍分歧较大,盘中争夺激烈。在未出现明显止跌技术信号前,我们已经短空思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周二盘面阴K线表现,但整体期价波动幅度不大,更接近于往右侧横盘状态,内盘油脂上有压力,下有支撑的盘面特征比较明显,对于这种模糊的盘面短线走势,仍建议场外观望(短线鸡肋行情,做不做都没什么油水)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周一盘面期价曾一度红盘走高,但在下午盘面期价逐渐走弱,终盘是以带上影线的阴十字星K线收盘。今天周二早盘期价平开走低,随着今日马棕榈的期价走低—–前几日独立的强势特征被磨平,短线的“冲高回落”态势开始显现。

小结:美盘豆油回落整理走势延续中,与此同时,国际原油昨日晚间期价大跌(纽约原油昨晚下跌2.70%),二者均拖累了马盘棕榈油独立上涨的可能性(胳膊还是拧不过大腿),我们继续保持对油脂类商品短线的回落整理观点不变。具体操作上:内盘油脂商品无仓单交易者场外观望,马盘棕榈油未逢低平仓干净的剩余空单谨慎持有,后市短线我们继续以短空操作思维对待。

[SUMMARY]
• As the downward correction of US soybean oil market is in the progress and Crude oil tumbled on yesterday, Malaysian palm oil failed to trade higher.
• We continue to remain short-term short outlook on edible oils, which are having downward correction at the moment.

[ACTION]
• For China edible oils market, uncommitted traders may stay on the sidelines.
• For Malaysian palm oil market, traders who are still holding short positions may retain those positions in view of an ongoing downward of Malaysia palm oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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