Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 15 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.12.2015周二 国际原油当前走势分析

美盘豆油3月,期价小幅下挫,短线的回落整理走势依旧很明显,虽然下跌幅度不是很大,但目前技术显示,依然没有明确清晰的信号显示回落整理已经结束,在市场清淡的交易气氛中,我们继续以短空看待,恰好也有时间关注一下国际原油市场的走势。

当前国际原油,纽约轻质原油喝北海布伦特原油双双失守40美元。其中美原油触及11年以来低点。以沙特为代表的石油输出国组织(OPEC)继续维持原油产量不变以保持市场份额。下定决心誓把美国页岩油公司挤出市场-争夺市场份额是本波国际原油下跌的主要原因。背后黑手资金暗流涌动,政治话语权的争夺鬼影重重,真乃杀人不见血。另外伊朗制裁取消后,原油出口量的增加,更是加大了对国际原油供应面的担忧。随着新兴市场经济体增长速度放缓,中国战略原油储备难以扛起需求大旗,美国原油储备继续保持高位,美国页岩油公司退出进程缓慢,原油输出国组织咬牙死磕誓不减产。重重利空令国际原油压力沉重,当前短线角度国际原油的下挫成为主流。

谈及到美元,本周内美联储将举行今年最后一次议息会议,当前金融市场对此次加息的预期较高,高涨的加息预期也是令美原油不堪重负的另外原因。当前短线美元指数呈反弹上行到100.00大关高点后,形成冲高回落整理走势,当前日K线图表上,美元指数回落整理到下方多头排列的60天均线位置左右,该位置支撑效力,就要看本次议息会议的尘埃落定的结果。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,短线盘中的回落均线确认过程进行中,期价在抵抗中下挫,今天周二盘中期价虽然稍有反复,但内盘的整体短线下挫整理态势未有丝毫改变,短线继续保持短空观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,今天周二早盘低开低走,上周五的降雨形成的情绪化阳K线盘中上涨未能得到延续,昨天与今天的阴K线下跌,表明短线的回落整理也还在进行中。继续回落整理观点对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线角度的下挫整理态势保持不变,盘中的任何期价反复不影响短线短空观点。耐心等待本次回落结束后的平空反多机会的出现。个人长线多单持有中线锁单持有与短线空单持有 – 根据个人的操作周期理念的不同, 继续延续该操作手法。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock