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Global Markets Analysis – 15 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.12.2016 周四 美联储加息后全球货币暴跌;油脂类商品短线走势上出现异动

北京时间12月15日凌晨3:00,美联储公布利率决议,将联邦基金利率提高25个基点,美联储利率决定上限为0.75%,下限为0.5%。这是时隔几乎整整一年之后,美联储又一次加息-加息的结果并不意外,但更重要的是,美联储决议声明:预计2017年还将加息三次!并预计未来加息路径更迅速,上调长期联邦基金利率预期0.1个百分点,至3.0%。决议声明获得一致通过。受此消息影响美元指数昨日晚间应声长阳大涨。

美盘豆油1月合约,期价继续在下方的20天均线附近震荡徘徊,短线的回落整理走势从盘面上观察-仍在进行中,尚未出现明显的变盘信号。

内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1705主力合约,今天周四盘中率先出现异动-豆油与棕榈油双双红盘中阳上涨,特别是棕榈油1705合约期价还创出近期新高6482元/吨,原先的横盘整理窄区间的上沿被向上突破,随后我们再密切关注一下内盘豆油1705合约走势如何?若该品种也能突破了区间的上沿,则表明短线整理恐将结束,对此我们保持高度关注(看明天周五盘面的后续表现)。

马来西亚方面,马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)刚刚发布的月度数据显示:马来西亚棕榈油11月份产量降至157.5万吨,比上月减少8.49%。截止11月底马来西亚棕榈油库存为165.6万吨,比10月份高出5.18%,但低于市场预期的169万吨。受马来西亚基本消息面利多情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,在前期多头顽强护盘作用下,马棕榈今天周四盘中期价出现了小幅高开上涨,并且形成了错列的阳K线上行态势,(马棕榈也出现了反身上行的态势苗头),我们对今天这种异动走势保持高度关注,若市场短线真的能继续扭身反转,我们将不得不提前结束前几日的回落整理观点。

小结:在美盘豆油回落整理正在进行中时候,内盘与马盘油脂类商品却提前出现异动情况,原本我们的计划是-在回落整理的尾声阶段,在期价适当回落整理到一个相对低点位置时候-多单逢低进场接盘。由于今天周四盘中,内盘与马盘油脂商品上出现了多头主力的突然拉高现象,令短线的回落整理出现了提前结束的迹象苗头,对今天盘面信号的新变化,我们要保持高度关注(是否要变盘?)最终结果-我们要看明天的具体表现(多观察一天;暂时不盲目操作)。具体操作上:激进型短线交易者手中少量空单今天要谨慎了,前期我们一直提示建议空单逢低平仓,未能了结的部分空单则只好做提前止损心理准备,具体操作建议:我们明天上午第一时间给出结果。稳健型交易者继续场外观望。

[SUMMARY]
• As US soybean oil undergoes a downward correction, China and Malaysia edible oils began to show signs of change.
• Our original plan was to initiate long position at the end of the downward correction when prices are relatively low.
• The downward correction, however, seemed to have been interrupted by strong long interest in China and Malaysia edible oils on Thursday.
• We shall remain highly cautious about the changing signals and pay close attention to tomorrow’s market performance.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive short-term traders who hold short position should be cautious and be prepared to cut their losses earlier than expected.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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