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Global Markets Analysis – 15 February 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.02.2015 周日 油脂商品后市展望

全球油脂商品本周(2月9日-2月13日)当周,整体呈现为先抑后扬短线走势,周初虽有小幅滑落,但成交量在期价回落时候未有效放大,并未支持期价的走低,随后在周五盘中随着期价的逐步走高,前期反弹上行走势得到延续。

其中美盘豆油3月,周初时候在临近箱体下沿32.00位置略有犹豫,震荡徘徊之后在周五时候高开高走,期价上穿60天线(上穿箱体)收盘于32.33位置,下周初若反弹上行得以延续,则美豆油有望进入到32.00-34.00原箱体内运行。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505合约本周五表现抢眼,率先一马当先中阳上涨走高,在外围市场尚在犹豫徘徊时分,周五内盘油脂商品的走势盘中短线强势较为明显,后市仍有继续走高动能。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,本周5个交易日意外走弱,连续5连阴,由于前几日的快速长阳上行后短线出现小幅回落,盘中对快速冲高到前高附近之后主动进行了一个回落整理,技术上对后市挑战前高提前预留出空间,为突破一月中旬的高点做出准备。

国际原油市场本周末受利多消息支持期价也略有走高,其中纽约原油在冲击上方均线60天线在积极做准备,当前期价维持在52.00左右,已经完全站在日图表上40天平均均线之上,后市密切关注是否出现上攻60天线的动能,若后市上穿成功,则前期(2014年6月以来)疲软走势有望得到扭转。

综述:油脂类商品本周末盘中上涨,令前期的反弹上行得以延续,短线走势上符合我们的预期。我们短线观点继续保持反弹观点不变。个人认为大陆内盘下周2月18日-2月24日因中国传统节日春节而休市停盘,考虑到假期时间较长,停盘期间的外围市场的不确定因素较多,本不建议休市期价持仓过节,但又考虑到前期低位接盘试仓多单持仓不重并且大都在低位(相对应美豆油30.00一线进场价格),因此仍建议多单继续持有。马盘是否有春节假日尚不清楚,考虑到马盘技术上并未走坏,下周仍存在补涨要求,因此也建议前期短线低位多单继续持有, 建议密切关注下周初全球油脂市场的表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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