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Global Markets Analysis – 15 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.03.2017 周三 内盘马盘油脂商品 棕榈油品种上多头主力仍在顽强抵抗

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间以带下影线的小阳K线收盘,今天周三亚洲电子盘上又继续红盘表现,美豆油短线急挫整理态势延续中,当前期价仍维持的2月27日的低点附近徘徊。在美豆油未出现明显止跌信号前我们仍以短空看待(单独的一半天红盘表现不足以说明短线止跌)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1705合约,短线的下挫探底整理疲软态势仍较为明显,表明内盘豆油品种上空头压力依然较重,继续短空观点对待。内盘棕榈油1705主力合约,期价下挫幅度较小,今天周三盘中中阳K线表现,表明多头主力仍尚未放弃,当前内盘棕榈油短线走势更趋于横盘小区间震荡态势,内盘豆油弱,棕榈油强态势延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周二盘中期价曾一度中阴K线下跌表现,后在下午盘中(北京时间17:00)左右期价止跌反弹走高,终盘以低开高走的阳K线收盘。今日周三盘中又十字星高开,马盘棕榈油上多头主力也未完全放弃,虽然这些许的多头抵抗力度尚不能完全阻止住短线下挫态势,但这2日盘中表现,多少给我们内心一些安慰,更坚定我们内心深处下挫整理过后的继续反弹上行走势的可能(继续关注下挫空间大小以及抵抗反弹力度)。

小结:美盘豆油短线下挫态势延续中,内盘豆油紧紧追随。而内盘马盘棕榈油下行要求却没那么强烈,属于抵抗性追随,期价下滑幅度较小。另外马来西亚方面将在4月份调低棕榈油出口关税为7.5%,而此前3月份的棕榈油出口关税为8%。当前全球油脂类商品市场棕榈强豆油弱的盘面走势仍在延续中,我们继续关注棕榈油的后续表现,短线观点上:依旧以下挫的疲软态势整体观点对待(仅仅棕榈油下方空间略微看窄些)具体操作上:豆油品种上空单继续持有,棕榈油品种上空单遇阴K线急跌时候空单离场,而前期剩余的部分被套老多单继续持有,后市下挫整理完毕仍不排除期价还有一波“真正的反弹上行” 走势要求。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil leads China soybean oil to edge down, while China and Malaysia palm oil moderately slips.
• Malaysia cuts export tax from 8% in March to 7.5% in April.
• We shall pay close attention to the performance of palm oil.
• In the short-term view, we hold a short position outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain soybean oil short positions.
• Traders may close-out short positions on palm oil technical indicators signal a steep decline.
• Traders who are holding long positions may wait for a rebound after the downward correction.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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