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Global Markets Analysis – 15 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.05.2015 周五 美元指数延续下挫回落整理态势

美元指数昨日晚间创出新低,前期的短线回落整理走势延续中。美元指数从去年7月初开始(80一线)的快速反弹上行令全球大宗期货商品普遍承压,国际原油下跌走势最为明显,其中纽约原油从2014年6月底的107.50美元高位直接下挫到今年1-2月份的45-50美元才稍微止跌企稳,腰斩一半还多。当前的美元短线回落,纽约原油才从低位反弹到当前的60美元/桶一线。

全球植物类油脂商品在美元反弹上行过程中也出现了大幅度的下跌,虽然跌幅没国际原油市场大,但期价下滑幅度仍不容小视。当前美盘豆油7月合约从前的30美元地位(技术支撑位)稍有反弹,但原长期的横盘整理大区间34-32-30仍在延续中,当前期价仅仅来到中间价值枢区。箱体上沿34一线的技术阻挡仍未出现技术上破,当前美豆油7月在33.50一线短线震荡。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,当前短线追随美盘豆油走势,在从低位反弹到稍高位置后,短线上行动能略有衰竭,前期清晰的小3浪反弹形态之后,当前的期价运行尚不能完全确定为运行第4浪,(若后市真能完全确定目前走势为第4浪,那后面必定跟随一个第5浪的上涨。)密切关注该品种的短线走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,近几日盘中上下波幅较大,昨日周四盘中的阴K线又在内盘停盘后期价收涨,终盘以带下影线的中阳K线收盘,昨日盘中的走势较为猛烈和异常。今天周五早盘高开,但阳K线未持久保持在中午前又遭多头减仓盘的涌出期价下滑,截止到下午14:30分中阴K线运行。

小结:油脂商品短线稍高位置延续震荡走势,盘中多空主力暗暗争斗,对后市走势分歧严重。当前情况下个人继续保持前期大观点不变思维下,继续对短线期价运行保持高度警惕,若真出现大的风吹草动可在心理上第一时间止盈了结出局。个人观点认为短中长线多单暂且持有,其中短线单子要密切关注盘中走势变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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