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Global Markets Analysis – 15 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.11.2016 周二 大陆内盘期货市场资金流出迹象明显;昨日一天有一百多亿资金出逃

近2日,中国证监会,上海、大连、郑州三大交易所相继发布了一系列监管通知,从调整相关商品交易手续费与交易保证金和涨跌停板幅度,到启动交易限额制度(某些品种买进卖出都规定了最大交易手数),这些严厉的监管措施对商品市场带来不小风险。就昨天一天时间-中国大陆商品市场就流出123.2亿资金,市场的政策性恐慌在蔓延中(内盘大部分品种均有不同程度的资金流出)。

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间中阴下跌,当前期价下挫到日K线图表60天均线附近,该位置存在一定的技术支撑力度,但也不排除瞬间下破的可能,我们继续关注美盘豆油的后市表现。

中国大陆方面受政策性不利影响,国内期货市场一片动荡。我们较为关心的油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周一盘中长阴暴跌,棕榈油1701合约更是在下午1点40分时候以跌停板价格出现,短线走坏迹象明显。今天周二上午盘中,虽然期价略有红盘涨幅,但短线的非理性波段仍在进行中。

马盘毛棕榈基准1月,昨日周一盘面跳空低开低走,盘中期价震荡下挫,受中国政策性影响拖累迹象明显,马盘棕榈后市短线也同样出现期价走软苗头,今天开盘后恐仍会波动震荡,我们暂时保持观望态度。

小结:中国政策面监管对期货市场的不利影响仍在蔓延中,市场仍陷于一片恐慌情绪当中,对于这“飞来横祸”-我们继续保持高度警惕关注!上周五晚间与昨日盘中已经减持多单的交易者可出局后场外观望一下,以规避后市短线不利风险。无仓者也暂时不盲目操作,暂时规避一下市场非理性波动,当前短线走势恐将还要延续几日,待市场情绪平静后,我们再做新的操盘计划。

[SUMMARY]
• China’s futures markets continue to come under pressure by new regulations imposed by the government.
• In an environment of intense panic, we shall remain extremely cautious.

[ACTION]
• Traders who closed-out long positions on Friday and yesterday may observe the market from the sidelines, and avoid short-term risks.
• Uncommitted traders should refrain from taking positions driven by irrational movement of the market.
• The short-term trend is expected to continue in the next few days. We shall begin strategizing after the market calms down.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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