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Global Markets Analysis – 15 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.11.2017周三油脂类商品空单持有

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间期价继续中阴下跌,上升盘中有力的证明了周一期价下破原趋势线的可靠性,我们继续保持下破关键技术位之后的短空下探观点不变。但考虑到美盘豆油已经连续四连阴暴跌,期价下挫幅度较深,在短线分时图上存在一定的技术“超卖”现象——不排除美豆油短线期价反复现象,恐今天晚间最迟明天美豆油会出现红盘反复动作,这点要引起我们的提前谨慎。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,最近几日追随美盘豆油期价走低,在空头打压盘与多头减仓盘双重合力下,内盘油脂商品短线盘面特征表现疲软,短线空单继续持有。

吉隆坡消息:昨日11月14日马来西亚一份政府通告显示:马来西亚将下调12月份棕榈油出口关税至6%,11月份的出口关税为6.5%,下调了0.5%个百分点。昨日周二马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,期价早盘跳空低开,全天期价低开低走,终盘报收于2718令吉特—–创出近2个月来单日最大跌幅,马盘棕榈油短线加速急挫走势延续中。

小结:美盘豆油“四连阴”急跌,内盘马盘油脂商品紧紧追随,全球油脂类商品的波段性短线下探走势延续中,下方的回落空间还有一段距离——-但考虑到美盘豆油更短周期的“分时图表”上已经出现了严重的“超卖”迹象,不排除后市短线上期价出现红盘反复现象(就在今天,最迟明天,但这不影响后市短线的期价继续下挫),只会在期价反复过程中会影响到我们散户朋友操作账户上的盈利水平变化波动。因此上我们建议:对于内盘马盘更敏感型散户交易者可于盘中急跌的低点时候空单平仓了结先兑现一部分利润,待期价反复过程中的阳K线时候再空单进去(滚动操作一下)。而对于稳健型交易者或者短线操作手法不老练的交易者则不建议此操作(有一定难度,难度就在于具体日内操作的时机把握),继续空单持有,等待真正的下探触底结束时候再平仓不迟。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils fell, tracking US soybean oil traded lower for a four straight day.
• Due to the oversold condition has occurred in the market of US soybean oil, we do not rule out the market might rebound.

[ACTION]
• In China and Malaysia market, aggressive retail traders may prepare to close all short positions when the prices are low and initiate short positions again after the market rebound.
• Consecutive traders are recommended to retain short positions and continue to pay close attention to the downward momentum of the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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