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Global Markets Analysis – 15 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.10.2015 周四 保持谨慎态度对待当前油脂商品的短线走势

美元指数当前短线由于美元加息的预期减弱而出现走低,美元指数在回落过程中,国际黄金市场由于避险金融属性,美盘黄金近期出现震荡走高。纽约原油前期小幅反弹到50美元整数关口再次出现上涨压力,短线表现为再次回落。

美国大豆收割进行中,由于新豆上市压力 以及美豆总产量数字尚未完全明朗,令美盘豆油12月在短线走势上略显犹豫纠结,有消息称,美国大豆种植农户对当前大豆价格不满而不愿出售手中新豆。美盘豆油12月合约,当前期价仍在60天均线位置震荡徘徊,在关键技术位置, 是就此一冲而过?还是等具体产量数字明确后再下探一次低点再扭转向上?美豆油当前短线走势不能对后市行情给出明确方向指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,近期短线走势略强于美盘,在历史相对低价区域范围内,大陆内盘油脂商品下行压力较小,先知先觉的部分投资人士已然明了在低价位区域埋伏多单,在美盘大豆收获最后时间段里,当前油脂商品下方的空间已然被封杀,即便再有一次下挫过程,那也是最佳的多单进场机会。(建议耐心等待市场在此观点上达成相对一致的认同。)

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在前期超跌之后强势独立反弹行情之后,当前短线走势表现为冲高回落整理走势,由于马来西亚棕榈油在10月份开始的第四季度已经逐步进入减产周期,则本波短线的下跌回落整理空间不会太大,这也是我们不建议盲目短线追空的原因,当前马棕榈油属呈抵抗性回落整理,期价小幅回落中修正前期的大幅反弹,并且把盘中堆积的大量短线获利盘洗出盘面,(甚至不排除让部分投资人头昏眼花,对短线走势人为造成分歧嫌疑),越是混乱分歧阶段,越是酝酿大行情的先决条件。继续建议对马盘棕榈短线走势保持超人的冷静。

小结:全球油脂商品等待美国大豆在收获最后时期,总产量与总期末库存准确数字的最后一次10月份报告出炉。在这时刻到来前,油脂类商品短线走势较为模糊。个人认为中长线筑大底观点不变前提下,对当前短线走势一定保持谨慎态度。观点认为:内盘油脂商品短多谨慎持有。马盘棕榈短线不建议频繁操作,耐心等待市场回落结束。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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