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Global Markets Analysis – 15 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.09.2015 周二 马盘毛棕榈油冲高回落;部分获利盘减仓

周一晚间,美盘豆油12月合约,低开高走红盘上涨,期价运行区间仍在短线的横盘震荡区域,方向性走势仍不强。倒是美盘黄豆连昨晚小阳收盘后,今天周二上午亚洲电子盘继续小阳表现,一种跃跃欲试的上冲态势,希望今天晚间能突破短线横盘区间上沿。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周二盘中追随美盘短线走势跳空高开,期价略有走高,但由于日图表上方空头排列的均线系统层层压制,期价反弹力度仍然较小。基本可以确定本波反弹上行走势为弱势反弹格局行情。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,由于前期该品种独立反弹上行,随着期价的逐步走高(今天第十四个交易日,费波纳茨数字 1、1、2、3、5、8 、13 、21 、34 、55。其中13天 ;21天左右期价将出现短线变盘波动的可能性较大),10几天内的低位短线抄底接盘多单获利已经相当丰厚,在昨日长阳上涨之后,今天周二盘中再次出现冲高回落走势,表明部分短线多头主力存在逢高减仓兑现获利筹码行为。

小结:美盘油脂依旧横盘一字型疲软表现,内盘追随性抵抗呈中性态势波动,马盘强势上冲V型反弹,三地短线走势依旧呈分化状态。个人保持短线反弹上行观点前提下,建议操作上要有些许分别对待思维。观点认为中长线多单暂时继续持有。短线多单保持谨慎持有,其中马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,可部分短线多单平仓了结,先兑现一部分获利筹码入袋为安。但不建议反手空单操作,同时可密切关注美盘豆油的短线走势对油脂类商品的影响。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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