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Global Markets Analysis – 15 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


15.09.2016 周四 美盘油脂商品短线下挫;内盘公共假期停盘

美豆油12月合约,2根长阴K线下跌之后,短线的下挫走势成立。美盘豆油将以小3浪结构运行本波回落整理 (看来-原先我们预期的回落整理结束稍早了一段时间),小3浪结构调整结束后,市场将会恢复原有的反弹上行机会,我们中线角度继续保持该观点不变,仅仅短线角度暂时短空看待,这是我们在期价运行节奏上首先需要交代清楚的。

大陆内盘期货市场与股票市场因为今天是中国人的传统节日“中秋节”而放假3天,下周一9月19日开盘。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在9月1日时候-从马盘凌厉的反身上行走势上观察,在日K线图表上有较为明显的V型反转走势,连续3天的跳空中阳快速上涨也基本符合V型走势的特征,因此造成我们过于乐观的认为将一举突破前高-可惜的是由于美盘豆油的不支持,短线行情瞬间转变为小3浪结构,因此马盘棕榈被拖累,看来马盘棕榈油不得不也要跟随外围市场的短暂疲软也将适当走低一段时间,下面空间不会很大,就当是一个下蹲动作,待美盘豆油3浪结束调整完成后,后市仍会酝酿新的上行机会。

小结:美盘与内盘油脂商品期价走低,特别是美盘豆油短线的3浪结构打乱了我们前面思维,市场短线将下挫一小段时间,而马盘棕榈油也将被拖累,我们等待从新的市场做多人气的聚集,调整结束后的低位多单埋伏机会是我们短线角度所关注的。观点认为具体操作上:中长线多单继续持有,短线多单平仓离场后,或场外观望或短空操作,耐心等待逢低进场的良机。

补充:今天是全球华人的传统节日-中秋节,身在异乡为异客;每逢佳节倍思亲,遥祝各位同仁中秋节快乐!

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. and China’s vegetable oil products decline.
• Malaysian palm oil may be dragged by U.S. and Chinese markets.
• New long trades are expected.

[OPINION]
• Medium and long-term holders of long trade may consider maintaining their positions.
• Short-term holders of long trade may close-out their positions, remain uncommitted or switch to short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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