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Global Markets Analysis – 16 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.08.2017周三全球油脂类商品继续保持下挫态势

美国天气出现降雨,美盘大豆昨日晚间继续中阴K线下跌,当前美豆期价正逐步靠近前低(2017.6.23日,上次反弹的初始低点位置)。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间更是长阴下挫,期价跌破下方60天均线的支撑。美盘油脂商品短线角度的下挫走势延续中,并且盘中开始出现下跌加速迹象(这是加速赶底的前兆)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周二盘面阴K线表现,受昨日晚间美盘下跌影响,今日周三早盘期价小幅跳空低开低走,继续保持短线角度下挫态势,空单持仓者继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周二光头光脚的中阴K线下跌(下跌34令吉特 1.28%),在美盘大陆内盘油脂商品普遍走低影响下,马盘棕榈油今日仍将继续走低。

小结:美盘油脂商品前期的下挫态势延续中,大陆内盘油脂商品也脱离右侧横盘抵抗状态开始走低,相信马盘棕榈油的独立强势特征恐难维持,我们本波下挫重点任务还是前面提到的那2点—–1. 解套前期空单,空单逢低出场。2. 待回落整理结束信号出现时候多单埋伏。当前我们的首要任务还在第1焦点上。具体操作上:前期有剩余空单未出局的散户交易者,遇盘中加速急跌时候仍时刻准备逢低平仓了结。而手中无仓单的朋友,待下方止跌企稳时候做好逢低多单进场的时机把握(后话)。当前油脂类商品我们继续以短空的加速赶底状态对待。

[SUMMARY]
• As the downtrend of US edible oils continues, China edible oils is beginning to follow suit after breaking out of the sideway trend.
• It appears Malaysia palm oil is likely to track US and China edible oils.
• Our short-term short outlook remains.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are still holding short position may close-out all positions when the prices are low.
• Uncommitted trades may seek opportunity to enter long positions when the prices are supported at low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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