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Global Markets Analysis – 16 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.12.2016 周五 油脂类商品内强外弱;内盘与马盘油脂商品存在提前结束调整走势苗头

美盘豆油1月,昨日晚间继续小阴K线表现,期价仍徘徊在20均线位置,单单从美盘豆油来说-短线角度的下挫回落整理走势仍未出现明显的结束信号。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,在昨日周四盘中中阳上涨之后,今天周五早盘期价继续高开高走,短线角度已然形成了错列上行态势(特别是内盘棕榈油),连续2天的期价走高,不得不让我们思维观点上发生些许改变-内盘油脂商品存在反身走强信号。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日的红盘中阳上涨K线,也令前几日的短线下挫出现反转信号,在短线多头的强力拉升作用下,期价创出新高3193令吉特,表明多头主力反身上行的欲望非常强烈。不排除今天期价仍存在走高机会。

小结:美盘豆油延续回落整理走势之时,内盘与马盘油脂商品却率先出现走强,前期我们提到过本波回落整理属于“强势整理”范畴(不往下空间看多大;激进型短线空单更不能贪婪)-从昨日多头主力的动作上观察,内盘与马盘油脂商品上存在调整提前结束信号(多头主力护盘力量大于我们的想象),因此上我们的短空观点也要追随市场新的变化而发生变化(没有找到在下方低位找到接多单的机会,则只好反手追多,属于被动性质)。具体操作上:前几日短线激进型空单操作失败-已经逢低平仓了结不说,未平仓兑现空单的做止损操作,空单离场后反手多单跟进-内盘与马盘油脂类商品走势转强迹象显露(空单的部分损失,我们则只能在反手多单上来找回),后市内盘与马盘油脂商品期价上涨概率大增。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils show strong uptrend, as US soybean oil continues to experience downward correction.
• Due to stronger long interest than we expected, we shall revise our outlook from short to long.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding short position may close-out and turn long.
• We hope to reverse losses that were made going short by turning long.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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