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Global Markets Analysis – 16 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.02.2016 周二 美黄金冲高回落;美原油触底反弹

今天周二,国际原油受共同减产利多消息影响走高。美盘原油连今天亚洲早盘跳空高开高走,超跌之后的触底反弹行情展开。国际黄金价格近2日大幅波动,其中美黄金连前期反弹上行到1263.7后,本周的前2个交易日出现了我预料中的高位剧烈波动,冲高回落出现苗头。中国股票市场春节长假期开盘后,昨天和今天从低位红盘上涨,内盘做多人气被凝聚。

美盘豆油5月合约昨天因美国公共假期停盘一天,今天周二亚洲早盘表现继续为红盘上行态势,前期短线角度的反弹上行走势仍在延续中,继续以震荡反弹上行观点对待,关注今日晚间的美盘表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,昨天周一盘中高开补涨,今天周二盘中继续高位震荡,其中棕榈油1605合约走势略强于豆油,期价已经上破前高(2016年1月4日高点)的技术阻挡,建议密切关注后市成交量是否能继续有效配合来继续支持期价的后续走高。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,上周末跳空高开出现上涨加速。昨天周一在消息面困扰下出现高开低走行情,情绪化走势还较为敏感。从技术盘面来说,昨日的高开低走恰好回补的上周五时候的跳空高开技术缺口。今天周二盘中在外围油脂商品普遍走高影响下,在昨日中阴K线右侧小阳表现,后市只要期价不下破该技术缺口,继续短多观点对待。

小结:当前全球商品市场大宗商品走势仍较为混乱,不能形成整体的共振走势,更多的表现为自己单个品种的剧烈波动,此种情况下我们既要保持谨慎心态,又不能自己乱了阵脚而毫无观点盲目操作,长假期已过,我们收回“过年”带给我们的激情兴奋,建议用更理性的心态对待当前期货市场各品种的表现。观点认为操作上: 中长线交易者继续半仓多单持有。短线交易者昨日刚进场多单谨慎持有,继续关注美盘豆油的后市表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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