Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 16 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.02.2017 周四 美盘豆油仍未完全整理到位 内盘 马盘油脂商品出现了一个假动作迷惑了我们

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日晚间冲高回落终盘以阴K线收盘,下影线十字星之后未出现期待中的阳K线。表明美盘豆油仍处于短线下挫的探底过程中。中线角度来说—从2016年12月7日反弹结束后展开的回落整理走势还未完全结束,下方还有少许回落空间(大概在34.00—-33.70—33.50之间),对美豆油保持谨慎下探寻技术支撑的短线疲软观点看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1705主力合约,由于内盘上周末时分的突然反弹走高2.8 2.9 2.10日三天(包括马盘棕榈油更早2天 2.6日 2.7日就开始走高),给我们产生一个错觉—以为内盘 马盘油脂商品短暂整理之后带领美盘走一段独立的“反弹行情”,也打乱了我们准备“逢低多单接盘”的计划。而由于美盘仍尚未下挫整理到位,造成我们当前尴尬局面。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月(4月),短线走势与内盘相似,也出现过酝酿反弹的“假象”,令我们多单匆忙中跟进。当前马棕榈整体处于次高位的横盘区间震荡阶段,表现为上有压力下有支撑的两难局面。

小结:内盘马盘的瞬间反弹假象表现,令我们春节后未多仔细技术观察而匆忙进场,而由于美盘短线的下挫疲软走势尚未真正结束,又把内盘 马盘油脂商品拖带下来,但考虑到美盘豆油大的回落整理已经进行了很长时间,后市下方的回落空间并不是很大(回落结束后 市场仍有一波反弹上行机会),我们当前为难的地方就是“酝酿反弹拐点”的进场时机没有把握好(没有找到真正的节点 早进场了几天),当前内盘 马盘油脂商品处于次高位的大的横盘震荡区间下沿位置(虽然多单进场被套 但下方空间不是很大),我们要等美盘豆油真正回落结束以后再低位再补一些多单仓位(这是后话 还需要美盘整理几天)具体操作上:我们早进场的这批多单继续持有,(因为下方回落空间不是很大内盘 马盘 内盘均是)。但在反弹上行的节奏上我们就需要多忍受,踏错节拍而带来的恶果,建议以谨慎的心态,以静制动对待一下,除此之外也没有更好的办法。

[SUMMARY]
• The false signals of a reversal in China and Malaysia caused us to enter hastily enter the market without sufficient technical analysis.
• Taking into consideration the fact that the prolonged and seemingly endless downtrend of US soybean oil, which has brought China and Malaysia edible oils down with it, and a limited downside room, it is difficult to determine an ideal entry point.
• As China and Malaysia oils continue oscillate at high price levels, we shall wait for the end of the downward reversal of US soybean oil before adding long positions.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions that were previously initiated.
• We shall patiently and cautiously observe the reversal trend.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock