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Global Markets Analysis – 16 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.01.2015 (周五) 短线逢高短空 中长线观望

1月16日(周五), 美盘豆油继续在箱体内震荡,短线上的趋势性行情不明显,期价呈震荡波动,当前价格位于短线箱体的中间位置33.00一线。长线上原上升趋势线30.00–31.00支撑效果明显。

大陆内盘豆油和棕榈油1505合约,期价继续震荡短线下挫,寻找下方长线角度的大底过程延续中,在美盘短线信号不明确下,短线震荡下挫观点保持不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,短线的前期走势远强于美盘和内盘,独立特征较为明显。但受国际原油、美豆油和内盘植物油外围市场下挫影响,在到达我们预期中的目标,2014年11月3日高点之上再继续惯性上冲的难度也是很大,昨日周五冲高回落留上影线,今天周五早盘高开低走收阴K线,考虑到油脂商品的联动性,虽有筑长线大底嫌疑,但短线上逢高短空仍为上策。

小结:全球油脂商品我们在短线角度上,继续保持下挫走势观点不变。长线角度的筑大底震荡行情仍以“时间换空间”形式进行中。个人看法是短线继续逢高放空,以下挫寻底看待。待下方寻底信号明确后,长线单子方可逢低接盘建仓。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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