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Global Markets Analysis – 16 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.01.2017 周一 美盘公共假期停盘 内盘马盘油脂商品多单持有

今天2017年1月16日星期一–是美国马丁路德金 纪念日,全国因公共假期放假一天,美盘停盘。

大陆内盘期货市场短线做多人气依旧比较高涨–前期我们提到过有色金属, 铜 锌, 化工商品橡胶, 贵金属黄金白银, 甚至贱金属, 螺纹钢, 玻璃, 煤炭等等品种均不同程度反弹上行。特别是橡胶品种, 依旧反弹上行高过12月份的前高点,连续6连阳暴涨。而内盘油脂类商品, 豆油, 棕榈油1705主力合约,期价也呈现短线的反弹走势,但上涨力度 高度略逊一些。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,今天周一盘面小阳K线表现,期价在3130一线波动震荡–马棕榈整体走势仍处于前期的横盘震荡区间内,短线走势无新意,仍处于高位震荡状态。

小结:美盘今日停盘无交易,内盘与马盘油脂商品期价小幅走高,前期我们预测的反弹上行走势延续中,但整体期价涨幅不大。前次报告我们已经把美盘豆油的b浪反弹定义为“弱势反弹”,由早期预测的反弹到前高(12.7日高点)的100%反弹幅度调低到 50%–61.8%幅度,因此上原来预测的M头(双重顶)的出现概率在降低。本月28日是中国传统节日春节–考虑到临近长假期时间已经不多(还有12天),为规避长假期(大陆内盘要停盘8天左右)而带来的不可控风险。马盘也有3天左右的春节假期,而美国是没有春节假期的–随着时间紧迫,我们建议在内盘与马盘短线看多观点不变前提下–未来2周, 我们的操作思路逐步转移到逢高减持多单。这一操作思路上来–尽量在春节假期前,把我们手中多单了结掉以空仓放松心态来欢度春节(没必要提心吊胆的过假期)。我们这一操作思路又超前了2周时间—我个人的意思是希望散户朋友能够提前在心理上做个准备,待节后回来我们再从新起草新的操盘计划。具体操作上:继续保持短多思路,在未来一段日子里,散户朋友可根据自己的个人账户情况逢高减持手中多单,直到放假前我们把手中多单平仓完毕。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils move up slightly, as US markets close for national holiday.
• With 12 days left to before the Chinese New Year holidays which start on the 28th of January, it is important to avoid any risk beyond our control. Malaysia markets will also be closed.
• While we maintain short-term long position outlook, we aim to gradually reduce long positions when prices are high.
• It is advisable to close-out long positions before the start of the holidays.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue holding long position but gradually close-out position at high prices as the start of the holidays approaches.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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