Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 16 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.01.2018周二美盘停盘内盘马盘油脂类商品略显疲弱

美国农业部报告上周五出炉后,又恰逢昨日周一公共假期,美盘豆油今日晚间才能正式开盘交易,美豆油短线走势的“不确定性”给全球油脂市场带来不利影响。近期美国大豆出口量萎靡不振,造成期末总库存上调(理论上不该存在这种现象,因为消费一直在进行中,出口也在进行中,而时间也是在往后延续中。怎么会出现2018年1月份的库存能比2017年12月份的库存还大?)只能说明当前美国大豆出口数据是非常的疲软来解释这一现象。上周五报告公布后,美黄豆连长阳上涨,美豆油3月红十字星—–由于缺少了昨日一个交易日,因此短线走势上缺少了指引效应,短线盘面的不确定性增强。

中国大陆方面,当前国内豆油库存大约在165万吨左右,棕榈油库存在65万吨左右。在中国传统节日“春节”来临前,各大商场超市的提前备货的节日效应还尚未得到体现,因此内盘油脂商品豆油。棕榈油1805合约短线走势出现反弹之后的下挫走势(美盘豆油下破趋势线影响),后期随着节日效应消费量的提升,内盘油脂商品仍会有期价走高要求。但从今天内盘豆油棕榈油1805主力合约短线表现来看—-今天上午盘面的中阴下跌,表明短线期价在节日效应未显露前恐将下挫整理一段时间。

马来西亚船运调查机构(ITS)发布数据显示,2018年1月1日——15日棕榈油出口量为552.635吨,比2017年12月份同期的596.862吨减少7.41%,当前马来西亚棕榈油库存为269万吨左右。马来西亚政府为了消减庞大的库存从今年1月份取消出口关税三个月,马政府的良苦用心也是前期马盘棕榈油短线反弹的根本原因。但马币令吉特的持续走强令反弹高度在一定程度上被削弱(令吉特兑美元从2017年10月升值了13%左右,令马棕榈反弹高度只反抽了一半)。从多年常识我们知道,马来西亚棕榈油通常从第一季度产量开始下降,而中国与印度两大棕榈油进口国在虎视眈眈盯着市场动静,相信当前这种疲弱走势持续时间不会太长。马盘毛棕榈油基准3月合约,今天周二盘面期价继续下挫表现,昨日周一带下影线的小阳K线被吞没,马棕榈短线走势也呈疲软态势。

小结:美豆油在美国农业部报告公布之后,短线走势尚不能完全看清楚。内盘马盘油脂商品却提前出现了一定幅度的期价下跌,并且下跌幅度棕榈油大于豆油。单从内盘马盘短线走势上观察——油脂商品的疲弱走势又有所抬头,我们以反弹停顿之后的短线下挫整理走势观点对待,后市关注短线下挫的时间长短,由于缺少了一个交易日美盘豆油的明确指引(美大豆上涨,美豆油停顿),我们未建议追空操作,已经平仓多单的散户朋友继续场外观望吧,而少量低位多单的散户朋友不到持仓成本区域,也暂时继续持有(其实这种走势我们前几日内心深处已经有所防备,因此才建议减仓到,无论市场发生什么新变化都不“心惊”地步),若美盘豆油今日晚间也开始追随内盘马盘期价下跌,并且期价开始远离趋势线,我们再做明确的反手空单跟进操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term direction of US soybean oil remains unclear, even after the release of USDA report.
• China and Malaysia edible oils stage a sharp decline.
• Our outlook is a short-term downtrend following a halt to the rebound.
• Our focus now is the duration of the downtrend.

[ACTION]
• Due to a lack of a clear sign of where US soybean oil is headed, it may not be ideal to pursue a short trade as yet.
• Traders without positions may stay on the sidelines for now.
• Traders with long positions from earlier may retain.
• Should US soybean oil follow the trend of China and Malaysia edible oils after the market resumes trading, we may decide to pursue a short trade.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock