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Global Markets Analysis – 16 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.16 周三 继续场外观望

美国农业部报告,截止7月13日当周,美国大豆生长优良率为72%,创20年来最高水平,去年同期仅为65%。目前豆油商业库存接近130万吨,近几年同期最高,且去库存缓慢。

油脂商品在美国农业部连续利空报告之后,期价一路下行,尚未看到回头迹象。昨日晚间美盘豆油12月以带下影线小阳收盘,表明短线下方略有支撑,但是否就此探底成功还不明朗。预计后市仍属于震荡下行态势,探底过程仍延续中。

小结:大陆内盘和马盘油脂商品继续追随美盘豆油下行态势,短线尚未出现探底成功的明确信号。但考虑到目前油厂压榨亏损较大,豆油的绝对价格较低,下方下跌的想象空间被收窄。具体操作上不宜再继续追空,前期空单逢低平仓出局后,无仓单者继续场外观望。 待有新技术信号出现,我们第一时间报告。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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