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Global Markets Analysis – 16 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.03.2016周三 美盘豆油5月合约;接近短线角度上升通道的上轨附近

美盘豆油5月,从3月2日开始的反身上行截止到今天运行了11个交易日,昨日周二晚间继续红盘小阳上涨表现。我们从新仔细研究了一下美盘豆油5月合约,从2015年9月底大豆收割以后的整体表现,短线角度来说-美豆油在日K线图表上呈现波段性震荡上扬走势,从图表中明显能看到一个清晰的上升通道,注意其中的2次短暂的假突破。当前美豆油5月合约期价再次临近上升通道的上轨处,该位置存在一定技术压力,我们在这目标位时候,建议操作上要保持谨慎态度。认为需要严谨一些。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,从更远的9月合约可以看出,内盘油脂商品远月合约比近月合约走势要强一些,9月合约的期价均以突破的前高点, 仅仅是在高位上震荡-在等待美盘豆油在通道上轨目标位置的表现,在等待美盘豆油的短线走势指引。这也是内盘油脂商品近3日裹足不前的主要原因,在美盘没明确指引时候,内盘多头主力继续上拉;信心略显不足。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,期价在短线角度反弹上行之后,期价已经临近2月15日2631令吉特高点位置,一步之遥,是上破还是被阻挡?这也到了关键位置,在外围油脂商品市场未给出明确答案前,马盘棕榈也同样出现横盘高位震荡走势,我们从心态上也要保持高度谨慎,特别是短线的激进操作者。

小结:美盘豆油反弹上行延续中,但走势上已经非常接近关键技术位,在美盘后市走势情况不明朗前提下,大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品上已经出现了犹豫徘徊心态。对此盘面语言,我们短线交易者一定要从思维上保持谨慎态度。或上;或下-我们一定要在第一时间从操作上追随后市盘面变化。个人认为具体操作上:中长线多但暂时继续持有。短线激进操作者多单保持谨慎,若真遇到美盘受阻回落则第一时间多单可逢高减仓操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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