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Global Markets Analysis – 16 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.03.2017 周四 棕榈油反弹上行欲望强烈 大有率先领涨油脂类商品走势要求

美盘豆油5月合约,内盘豆油1705主力合约,二品种的短线走势仍处于下挫的疲软态势中,期价下跌幅度较大。截止到昨日周三晚间,美盘豆油5月合约期价下跌幅度逐渐收窄,并且出现了右侧横盘迹象。本波二品种的短线急挫属于“被动型底背离”下挫,是由于突发性基本面利空(美国农业部利空消息)与消费淡季的人气骤然涣散而造成期价下跌,但从技术上观察——二品种存在技术背离下跌,下挫之后仍有走强机会。

马盘棕榈油基准5月与 内盘棕榈油1705合约,二品种短线走势与 豆油品种略有不同,棕榈油前期反弹上行欲望较高,是瞬间被豆油品种给拖累下来,但棕榈油的下跌幅度较小,下行意愿不强。在美盘豆油略微止跌迹象出现时,就已经开始显露反弹欲望—特别是马盘棕榈油基准5月,该品种 周二时候由阴转阳,昨日周三又高开高走,今天周四盘中依旧阳K线红盘表现,在多头主力激进护盘作用下,马盘棕榈的期价上行要求强烈。

小结:豆油棕榈油短线走势出现分化更为严重起来——豆油承压下挫,棕榈油抵抗反弹上行。在这种一上一下微妙的盘面感觉中,整体油脂类商品的短线研判与操作难度增大。好在我们思绪未被这种盘面迹象所迷惑(前2日场外观察时候就理顺了—-急挫是为了反弹)—–昨日周三晚间美联储再度加息25个基点,美元指数未涨反跌(加息25个基点早在金融分析人士预料当中 存在利好出尽为利空的感觉),美元指数的下行恐对以贵金属为代表的大宗商品下行压力减轻(黄金要涨)。而国际原油市场前几日的大幅急跌也出现了止跌信号(美盘原油也存在反弹走强机会),后市大宗商品的上行要求逐步强烈起来。因此上我们也要谨防油脂类商品被其他大宗商品的做多人气心理提振作用。当前油脂类商品的短线瞬间波动较为敏感(跌或涨 瞬间转换太快),因此上我们的思维也要敏感起来,防止瞬间的再度变盘。具体操作上:豆油品种上短线空单遇急跌也开始考虑空单平仓离场,兑现利润。部分在棕榈油上持有的激进型空单减持(未在马盘3.14日低点空单减持的现在继续减持)。而棕榈油上前期多单则继续持有。本波短线的急挫之后,有可能在棕榈油的快速反身上行强烈要求下,带动整体油脂商品出现走高情况(包括底背离下跌的豆油),部分更为激进的短线交易者可适量在豆油上逢低多单少量进多。经过本波短线急跌之后—–后市油脂商品短线反弹上行概率大增。我们此刻观点紧紧追随盘面最新变化—-由短空开始逐步转为短多,同时密切关注美豆油5月短线走势的新迹象。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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