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Global Markets Analysis – 16 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.05.2016 周一 马来西亚政府的债务违约陷入恐慌;棕榈油商品成为第一受害者

在美国消息面一片利好声中-美国压榨利润改善、阿根廷大豆减产、厄尔尼诺现象危害严重、全球大豆供应紧张、全球大豆期末库存减少与中国大豆需求增加等等一系列欢呼声中,美盘豆油7月合约上周末时分突然异常大跌,周四的一根长阴K线令短线的反弹走势瞬间化为泡影,期价再次临近上升趋势线的技术支撑位置-该位置是否能再次支撑住?成为全球投资人关注的焦点。尽管美盘黄豆连期价仍维持在高位,以及美盘原油反弹上行延续中,但美豆油瞬间疲软已经严重影响到全球油脂商品走高的信心,美盘豆油、美盘大豆与美盘原油短线走势上再次出现了分化现象。我们继续以美盘豆油为主要风向标,内心对该品种保持谨慎态度。

上周 5月13日“黑色星期五”,中国期货市场遭遇黑天鹅事件-三大油脂商品豆油、棕榈油、菜油全线跌停,黑色系商品也普遍暴跌,其中铁矿石跌停、螺纹钢逼近跌停、焦炭暴跌6%,甚至连橡胶跌5.03%;PTA跌1.82%都未能幸免。我们较为关心的豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,在短线反弹上行走势良好情况下,突然的出现跌停,疲软走势已经较为明显,下方的60天均线支撑被棕榈油1609合约率先击破,我们上周已经建议棕榈油短线多单止损出局。今天豆油1609合约也下破均线支持,内盘油脂商品的短线走势已经变得不再乐观,建议豆油短线多单交易者考虑平仓止损。

有小道消息称-本波油脂类商品的突然暴跌是由于马来西亚政府的债务违约而造成的金融恐慌,周四,马来西亚政府投资基金票息支付日到期,马来西亚央行已经连续2个月未支付17.5亿美元债务的应付利息(5030万美元),这引起海外投资者的恐慌,并且还引起了其他债权的交叉违约现象,这一信心丢失现象引发了海外投资者大量抛售大宗商品。棕榈油成为最大受害者,并且传导到中国内盘大连商品交易所棕榈油的表现,该问题在没有解决前,恐怕油脂类商品将在恐慌情绪下维持一段时间。当前马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,期价仍短线维持在上升趋势线的上方,虽然马盘棕榈尚未下破关键技术支撑,但我们内心也要保持谨慎,特别是短线交易者更要保持警惕。

小结:早先我们就提出过一种操作理念-虽然我们长线角度保持油脂类商品反转看多观点,但由于全球经济宏观环境的不确定性,以及中国经济疲软已经是不争的事实,中国大陆经济的转型发展是一个长期而又充满挑战的过程,中国高层方面也是摸着石头过黄河。走一步算一步,严峻的外围环境充满挑战。因此上我们也把操作理念在大周期长期性上,人为的缩短交易周期-以中短线波段交易为主,也是顺应时代的客观要求,也是我们散户朋友为避免期价的非理性异常波动而带给我们的意外伤害,我们是采取的一种扬长避短的中庸式与短平快操作模式。提醒散户交易者以美盘豆油为主要风向标。针对自己操作的各个品种分别对待,内心保持谨慎, 密切关注美盘豆油具体后市变化。(美豆油近一两日肯定会对趋势线的支撑与否给出一个明确答案)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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