Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 16 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.11.2014 周日 油脂商品长中短线分析

11月10日至11月14日当周,美盘豆油1月主力合约短线的下探整理延续中,期价下滑至9月份以来横盘震荡的下沿附近,再度考验31.80一线的支撑效果。长期角度技术观察美盘豆油1月合约,打开月K线图表,从2000年低点做上升趋势线,当前期价正好位于上升趋势线位置,(查附图)该位置的支撑力度应该非常强大,但由于中线角度为反向的下降趋势行情,因此短线的下跌不可避免,通过技术计算30.00整数与31.80之间为本次下跌的极限强支撑位,相信期价到达此位置将会有长线买盘进场,因为长线角度美盘豆油仍属于长期上升趋势。

美盘原油长线角度也为长期上升趋势,但中线的反向下降趋势主导着市场行情,表明当前国际原油市场供大于求状况未得到改善,由于美原油的本波中线下跌晚于美豆油,起始日为2014年6月20日,(此前美原油均为上升趋势下的上涨态势),原油的补跌对油脂商品的拖累作用不容小视。当美原油跌至4年来的低点,在73美元每桶附近,有消息传闻中国政府有意向购买储备动作的发生。

大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品中线跟随美盘豆油走势运行,但二者短线走势却略有不同。马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,受马来西亚政府政策性利好扶持,从今年9月初以来主动挺身来遏制棕榈油中线的下跌态势,并且也出现了一定的期价反弹效果,短线上遏制住了期价的继续下滑,率先展开了一波反弹走势。大陆内盘油脂商品:豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,在短线走势上更跟随美盘紧密些,期价延续震荡抵抗性下探。

综述:对全球油脂商品综合分析,当前油脂类商品中线角度的下降趋势主导着市场下行节奏,短线上期价仍处于震荡下滑态势,在基本面没得到有效改善前,短线下行行情仍延续中。但考虑到长线角度的原上升趋势,当中线的下跌到达原上升趋势线位置,市场存在技术性支撑,我们所要做的就是等待在趋势线附近的止跌企稳后的进场买进机会。个人观点认为在中短线下行尾声阶段不建议追空,下方的空间已然不大。但在未明确止跌前,太早的提前接盘进场又存在风险。在这尴尬两难阶段,稳健者继续场外观望,马盘上少许前期接盘多单未完全出局者看做好个人的止损谨慎持有。耐心等待市场给出明确的中长线角度的接盘机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.