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Global Markets Analysis – 16 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.11.2016 周三 内盘商品期货市场政策性风险释放中;油脂类商品暂时观望

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间红盘小幅上涨表现,期价在60天均线位置暂时企稳,后市仍需要对该技术支撑位做心理压力测试,恐期价仍围绕该位置波动震荡,我们继续关注该位置的后市表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,本周一的长阴暴跌正常心理负面影响情绪还在市场蔓延,虽然昨日晚间夜盘交易以红盘小阳表现,但整体市场的风险释放还未完全结束,我们在操作上继续保持一种“冷眼观望”心态对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,本周一与周二连续中阴下跌表现,连续三天来减仓下行-表明部分多头逢高减仓出逃迹象明显,今天周三盘中期价恐将在昨日的中阴K线右侧小幅波动震荡(中阴K线右侧小阳表现),短线上我们暂时保持观望态度。

小结:内盘期货市场上政策性负面心理影响还在市场蔓延,仍需要一段时间消化释放风险。内盘油脂类商品的短线下挫已经影响到美盘与马盘油脂类商品的近期短线走势,鉴于非理性政策面的情绪化导致研判难度较大,现在就做出明确的研判为时尚早,我们暂且以一种观望心态对待,内盘与马盘期价冲高回落之后的小幅走软的概率依旧很大,在我们前2日建议多单减持后,暂时停止盲目操作,静观市场后期走势的变化,待市场情绪稳定后,我们再考虑新的操作计划。(先让市场吸收消化;冷静几天)

[SUMMARY]
• China’s futures markets remained affected by negative sentiment caused by new regulations. It might take a while before the market risk subsides.
• The short-term slump in China’s edible oils has also put pressure on the short-term trend of their American and Malaysian counterparts.
• Due to irrational reaction to the new regulations, it is difficult where the market is headed.
• We shall patiently observe the market, as there is a high chance of a downtrend following an upward reversal of China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders who, under our recommendation, closed-out long positions in the past two days may remain uncommitted and patiently observe the movement of the market.
• We shall begin strategizing as soon as the market calms down.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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