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Global Markets Analysis – 16 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.11.2017周四美盘豆油昨日晚间果然期价阳K线红盘报复性“反复”

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三盘中期价长阳上涨,盘中报复性抵抗动作表现明显,基本上符合我们昨日报告中预期。从昨日的阳K线来分析,这波短线下探的空间不会很大,我们在短空观点保持不变前提下,内心深处时刻警惕触底反弹信号的出现,在对应的内盘马盘油脂商品上空间谨慎持有,稍有变盘信号可适量空单减持。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周四盘面红十字星阳K线走势,在美盘豆油昨日晚间长阳K线抵抗时候,内盘油脂仅仅小幅红盘表示一下,并未紧紧追随美盘豆油的“忽悠”,表明内盘短线空头主力已经提早明白美盘豆油会有此动作(不为所动),我们也就暂且继续空单谨慎持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,今天周四早盘跳空高开—– 仅以一个跳空动作吸收消化昨日美豆油的长阳上涨,短线走势上与内盘表现一致,我们继续下探观点对待,但请散户朋友时刻注意逢低平空兑现利润的心理准备。

小结:全球油脂类商品在收割季节的最后尾声阶段 新豆上市前夕,期价下探整理——-试图寻找到下方一个“较佳”心理承受价格,来酝酿一波真正的“大反弹”中线周期的上涨行情,在未“夯实”下方低点前,我们则继续保持下探的短空思维不变,但也请现在空单持有者的散户朋友注意——-我们本波短线下探操作不是力求空单来盈利多少,我们只是在短线上尽量跟随市场期价的运行轨迹在前进,因此上我们一定提前要做好空单兑现利润离场的心理准备——从近期美盘豆油的波动特性来看,当前油脂商品市场的多空主力操盘手法较为“激进”,性格上更张扬一些,盘面变化频率较快,这从另一个侧面也表明多空主力对后市走势方向看法分歧较大—–我们散户朋友一定要注意因主力周期操作理念的不同,而造成油脂商品上的盘面迅捷变化,尽量在市场主力“动手”前 而我们就先警惕起来。具体思维操作上:时刻做好逢低平空时机的把握。

[SUMMARY]
• As harvest of global edible oils is nearing an end, futures prices undergo a downward correction.
• We maintain our short-term short outlook, but we also urge traders with short positions to exercise caution.
• Our priority at this point is not to maximize profits, but ensure that we effectively follow the trend. Thus, we shall be prepared to take profits when the time is right.

[ACTION]
• Traders should be prepared to close positions and take profit when an opportunity arises.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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