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Global Markets Analysis – 16 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.10.2014 油脂商品出现短线下挫走势

美国气象部门称:本周五至周末天气将变得干燥,美国中西部地区大豆收获进度有望加快。昨日晚间美盘豆油出现重挫,期价中阴下跌,昨天我们预测的短线上的下行出现苗头。

美元指数昨晚同样出现长阴下跌,一阴包多阳,短线的下挫整理进行中。美原油继续保持前期的下行走势,下跌速度有加快迹象。在美元指数回落整理时候,仅有美黄金反身触底短线反弹。

大陆内盘油脂商品,豆油与棕榈油1501合约周四早盘双双低开,跟随美盘短线走势明显,成为典型的影子盘,整体盘面萎靡不振,操作价值不高,个人建议短线观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨日低开低走,盘中在60天线均线处(2150左右)未能有效支撑住,今天早盘受美豆油和美原油外围市场下跌影响跳空低开。期价已经位于60天线下方。昨日我们就曾提醒,60天线处于短线的多空分界线,多单止损位就设在该位置,相信昨日下破60天线时,散户朋友多单已经止盈了结出局。

小结:受美盘豆油和美原油下跌影响,大陆内盘与马盘均出现期价走低迹象,短线上的下挫走势出现苗头,后市不排除继续下挫寻找支撑。个人观点认为前期反弹操作多单平仓了结出局后全部场外观望,密切关注其下挫力度如何,耐心等待本波下挫之后长线角度的趋势性多单进场机会。观望散户中部分激进操作者亦可短线反手逢高短空,但不恋战,有利润即平。心中时刻记得,本波的短线下挫,是为未来的长线角度在打基础,不能在频繁操作中迷失方向。另外,在以黄金为代表的金属能源类商品,在美元指数继续回落整理时间,前几日建议的短线反弹多单可继续持有(包括外汇市场 欧元美元)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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