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Global Markets Analysis – 16 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.16日 周二 马来西亚公共假期停盘

美盘豆油12月,昨日晚间再次长阳上涨,就像近几日我们报告中所说,利空出尽后的反弹态势已经非常明显,我们继续对美盘豆油以超跌后反弹观点看待。

今天9月16日,恰逢马来西亚纪念日,马盘因公共假日而停盘。毛棕榈油基准11月昨日跳空高开,见高点2124后冲高回落留上影线,距离我们预测的 2130(40天线阻挡位一步之遥),可喜的是仍以红盘报收(未出现带上影的阴K线),仅表明该位置存在技术压力(第一目标)。其实最主要的压力位在60天线处(未到之前都是反弹,突破之后才有演变成反转的可能)。

大陆内盘油脂商品周二早盘高开上行,继续挑战平台箱体上沿位置,盘中曾出现多头发力迹象,但同时也遭来空头主力的阻击,特别是豆油1501合约,盘中曾想一举突破该阻挡,但由于缺少美豆油亚洲电子盘以及马盘毛棕榈油的支持,形成冲高回落走势,多空主力箱体上沿位置争夺中。

小结:9月16日周二马盘停盘无交易。内盘油脂冲高回落,表明均线空头排列下的反弹压力重重,内盘在无明显利多支持下,想一举突破阻挡难度较大,但考虑到美盘豆油2错列长阳,我们仍以反弹观点对待。个人观点认为内盘与马盘多单谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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