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Global Markets Analysis – 16 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


16.09.2015 周三 油脂类商品走势秃废;短线多单离场规避风险

美盘黄豆有上攻欲望,可惜美盘豆油12月合约不予配合,依旧是阴阳K线的短线横盘状态,盘中的疲软走势特为明显,没有丝毫的上行动能,在此状况下,后市豆油短线走势恐仍将疲软。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,前期一直抵抗性的反弹,但在美盘豆油疲软走势影响下,期价上涨幅度不大,弱势反弹迹象逐步明显起来,在美盘的疲软拖累下,不排除本波的反弹预期终将以失败告终的可能,期价再次走软的可能性越来越强烈。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在周一长阳上涨之后,昨日冲高回落盘中短线多头获利盘的涌出令期价下跌。今天9月16日周三为马来西亚成立日,因假期而停盘。在昨日建议部分短线多单逢高离场兑现获利筹码后,剩余部分多单待马盘开盘后若期价不能收复周二的中阴K线,则短线剩余多单可全部逢高离场入袋为安。

小结:美盘豆油短线走势秃废,盘中做多人气始终不能凝聚,横盘震荡时间越久不排除期价再次出现下坠的可能。因此短线角度而言,内盘追随性下挫与马盘冲高回落的下跌均有可能使期价重心下移。个人前期的反弹观点从今天开始转为谨慎态度,后市短线油脂商品期价走低的概率在逐步增大。观点认为中长线多单谨慎持有。内盘与马盘短线激进操作者多单考虑逢高兑现全部平仓离场,是否反手短空(锁仓中长线多单的账面损失),建议再多观察美盘豆油一两日,同时待马盘开盘后的表现 ,再做出具体决定。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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