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Global Markets Analysis – 17 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.17 周日 油脂类商品本周走势回顾 (11.08.2014 – 15.08.2014)

今天8月17日星期天,曾记得在7天前的周报中提及过7月23日的低点位置是个短线关键技术位,关于这个重要位置我们也曾在报告中多次提到过,当市场行情走势在7月23日前低之上运行,若出现有力度上扬则一波反弹行情就展开了(比如前期的内盘1501豆粕便是如此),可其他油脂商品豆油和棕榈油仅仅是横盘平台震荡,盘中多日不见上行发力迹象,我们就对预期的市场反弹行情走势产生了怀疑跟警惕,随着时间推移这种担心就越发强烈,该反弹不反上行有压力,反弹动能未被激发和均线压制久盘必跌。

果然,当7月23日低点在本周一被形成有效下破,市场便选择了由反弹预期转为实际的破位,连续10几个交易日的平台横盘格局一旦被击破,横盘期间的多头主力就全部被套,本周5个交易日就是在多头砍仓、空头打压和双重力量之下形成了惨烈下跌的短线行情, 回顾本周(8月11日 – 8月15日)5个交易日的走势,惨烈二字一点都不夸张,技术破位后,期价下跌明显出现加速迹象,大陆内盘连续5连阴,马来西亚毛棕榈油一阳四阴,空头主力完全掌控着短线行情走势。

本周5个交易的短线下跌行情,其实早在8.8日上周五时候,美盘和马盘就先露出端倪,(二品种提前一天就下破了 7月23日的低点), 仅仅只剩下大陆内盘多头还在苦苦挣扎抵抗,终于在本周一的向下一跃,形成了断崖式式下行行情。

综述:在本周初,油脂类商品内外盘均下破前低,关键技术位的击穿,令市场平台横盘行情终止并且选择了下行,短线走势明朗后,本周5个交易日油脂商品盘面下跌惨烈,“多头不死,空头不止”再次被市场演绎,横着多长,竖起来就多高,下方已然找不到支撑位了 ,马盘和大陆内盘均创出2年多来的新低。短线看空观点不变,后市密切关注下跌动能随着期价的快速下跌的释放情况。个人看法是我们已经连续一周逢高短空操作建议后,日内短线操作空单遇盘中低点可日内了结,期价由于下跌速度过快,已经远离日图表上的下降趋势下的均线系统,虽然短线下跌行情延续中,但下周也要谨防多头的反扑造成的短线盘面的反复情况,下周操作上需谨慎,不宜盲目乐观。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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