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Global Markets Analysis – 17 August 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.08.2015 周一 美盘大豆与豆油受上周利空消息影响严重;吸收消化过程进行中

在上周三时分,美国农业部的8月份供需报告对美盘油脂商品利空影响依然严重。本周一美盘豆油与大豆依旧在吸收消化该利空因素,短线走势上延续上周三长阴暴跌之后的下挫惯性,期价继续疲软下行,每次酝酿的短线反弹走势总是被市场空头主力给击破,中长期角度下的大区间横盘震荡整理行情右侧延伸中。短线反弹屡屡失败,呈现出上有压力而下有支撑的两难境界,我们仍暂以下行筑底的的低位震荡疲软看待美盘豆油12月合约。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周一早盘低开高走,小阳K线波动。上周初的短线反弹在周末时分被打乱节奏后,内盘油脂呈抵抗性跟随美盘走弱,虽然期价未出现明显下跌,但反弹动能依然消失,等待美盘下挫结束之后新的指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,前期表现一直疲软,盘中就未曾出现过短线的盘中反弹强势。市场对马来西亚棕榈油季节性产量增长的担忧一直困扰马盘,全球商品价格走软以及马来西亚棕榈油库存的增加对马盘毛棕榈油形成压力。但马来西亚令吉特汇率的持续下跌,令吉兑美元的汇率已经达到17年来的新低,这将提振棕榈路有的市场竞争力,稍微抵消期价的下挫动能。

小结:美盘油脂商品受上周利空消息影响严重,美盘大豆与豆油的短暂下挫仍延续中。全球油脂商品期价反弹的要求变得压力巨大。个人短线观点上仍以三地油脂商品分别对待思路不变。美盘下挫;内盘抵抗;马盘小跌。个人观点认为中长线多单继续持有。短线仓单暂停操作,继续关注美盘豆油下挫的空间情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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