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Global Markets Analysis – 17 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

17.08.2017 周四 美盘豆油在60天均线位置将出现徘徊波动震荡




小结:美国大豆丰产的阴影仍笼罩在期货市场(前几日美农业部的利空报告阴影),国内油脂商品短线又存在供大于求的不利局面,而马来西亚方面棕榈油产量开始进入旺季(8月—10月)。当前短线利空情绪的负面影响尚未完结。我们短线继续保持短空思维不变。 但又考虑到中国大陆进入秋季养殖业开始进入旺季,中国传统节日“中秋节”小包装豆油消费提前备货等等潜在利多情绪,未来的第三第四季度油脂商品将迎来“供销两旺”的局面,所以我们继续保持短空而长短的观点不变。具体操作上:短线空单谨慎持有,遇到盘中急跌有利时候,仍逢低空单减仓直至空单平仓完毕。而稳健型无仓单交易者继续场外观望,耐心等待止跌企稳的多单埋伏机会的到来。

• With the overproduction on US soybean and China edible oils, we remain short-term short outlook.
• However, we may turn long outlook on China market as Mid-Autumn Festival is coming.
• Malaysian palm oil began to increase production in coming few months.

• Traders who are still holding short position may close-out all positions when the prices are low.
• Uncommitted traders may seek opportunity to enter long positions when the prices are supported at low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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