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Global Markets Analysis – 17 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.08.2017 周四 美盘豆油在60天均线位置将出现徘徊波动震荡

美黄豆连正在逐步靠近前低位置(6月23日),该位置从理论上讲,应该存在一定的技术支撑(因为前次凌厉的那波反弹就是从这价格开始的)。纽约原油昨日晚间中阴下跌,短线冲高之后的回落整理延续中(符合我们的预期)。美盘豆油12月合约,前2日期价下破60天均线的支撑,当前这个60天均线位置是一个关键技术位,后市期价将围绕这个点位多空厮杀争夺,因此上期价在该位置出现反复,希望大家也能够提前理解—–对后市来说,若该位置被证明支撑有效,将会是我们多单的“埋伏点位”,但截至到目前,我们仍不能排除期价的瞬间“毛刺”下破急跌现象的发生。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,短线追随美豆油的回落整理行情延续中,虽然盘面上有些许多头护盘,但短线回抽均线的进行工作还未结束(不够充分),我们继续保持下挫态势的整理观点。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周三盘中,马棕榈10月低开高走小阳K线报收,马盘多头护盘动作更为明显些。今天周四盘中十字星表现—–马棕榈油从盘面表现上来说—–存在一种“拒绝下跌的浪漫情怀”,这也是马盘棕榈油所特有独立特征。

小结:美国大豆丰产的阴影仍笼罩在期货市场(前几日美农业部的利空报告阴影),国内油脂商品短线又存在供大于求的不利局面,而马来西亚方面棕榈油产量开始进入旺季(8月—10月)。当前短线利空情绪的负面影响尚未完结。我们短线继续保持短空思维不变。 但又考虑到中国大陆进入秋季养殖业开始进入旺季,中国传统节日“中秋节”小包装豆油消费提前备货等等潜在利多情绪,未来的第三第四季度油脂商品将迎来“供销两旺”的局面,所以我们继续保持短空而长短的观点不变。具体操作上:短线空单谨慎持有,遇到盘中急跌有利时候,仍逢低空单减仓直至空单平仓完毕。而稳健型无仓单交易者继续场外观望,耐心等待止跌企稳的多单埋伏机会的到来。

[SUMMARY]
• With the overproduction on US soybean and China edible oils, we remain short-term short outlook.
• However, we may turn long outlook on China market as Mid-Autumn Festival is coming.
• Malaysian palm oil began to increase production in coming few months.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are still holding short position may close-out all positions when the prices are low.
• Uncommitted traders may seek opportunity to enter long positions when the prices are supported at low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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