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Global Markets Analysis – 17 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.12.2014 周三 油脂类商品短线仍呈弱势

美原油继续惯性下行,周二晚间又见新低53.61,当前离下方支撑位50.00(正负误差1)已经距离不远,国际原油的下跌对全球各类大宗商品普遍形成压力,国际原油未明显寻找到技术支撑位前,大宗商品仍需要疲软看待。

美盘豆油主力3月合约,在期价上冲进32.00-34.00箱体内后,又被打压出箱体下沿,当前运行在32.00整数关一线,短线观察期价仍有下蹲要求。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,受日图表均线压制期价继续保持下滑,当前国内现货市场基本稳定,现货价格稳中有降。期现两市场受外围市场影响仍较为严重。今天周三早盘棕榈油1505合约创新低4920,短线内盘油脂还存在下滑空间。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,如昨日所料,周三早盘考验前低2100一线,盘中见低点2102令吉,该位置是否能保住就显得尤为重要,若被吓破后市短线仍有新低,考虑到马来西亚令吉特近期的走软,零出口关税延期到2015年1月份,该品种下方的空间应该有限。

小结:国际原油惯性下行延续,油脂商品整体受拖累,在美原油未到达50.00(+ -1)之前,我们短线对油脂类商品看淡观点不变,并且不排除各类油脂商品期价出现猛的下蹲可能。后市密切关注美原油临近50.00一线后的整体表现。个人建议短线日内操作空单可继续,但不恋战见好就收。中线与长线单子不进场,场外观望本次下蹲走势如何演绎。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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